Canada Markets

A Look at Week 12 Statistics

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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As of week 12, or the week ending October 23, producer deliveries into licensed facilities have far exceeded 2015 and the five-year average. Shipments from the Prairies are only marginally higher than 2015 while exports are lagging last year's pace. Primary elevator stocks are higher than average although continue to be viewed as fair. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Latest Canadian Grain Commission data shows producers continuing to aggressively deliver grain into the licensed handling facilities, despite the weather-related harvest delays facing the western Prairies. As seen on the attached graphic, producers have delivered a total of 13.991 million metric tons of all principal grains, up 5.6% from the same period in 2015 and 19.9% higher than the five-year average for this 12-week period.

Looking across the data for the reported crops, highlights include a year-over-year increase of 121,500 mt or a 2.8% increase in canola deliveries. Week 12 deliveries totaled 446,700 metric tons, a three-week high. Producers are undoubtedly delivering forward contracted grain, booking space for drying at elevators with capabilities as well as responding to the favorable street prices with the prairie average slightly higher than the much-targeted $11 per bushel or $485/mt.

Deliveries of western soybeans totaled 681,500 mt in the first 12 weeks of the crop year, up 427,500 mt or 168% from last year. As well, one of the largest year-over-year increase in deliveries is seen with dry peas, with a total of 1.857 mmt delivered, up 581,200 mt from last year or 45.6% from last year. Producers have delivered 822,700 mt of bulk lentils so far this crop year, up 367,300 mt or 80.7% from the first 12 weeks of the 2015/16 crop year.

As of week 12, producers have delivered 477,000 mt less wheat and 247,800 mt less durum than seen as of the same period in 2015.

As seen on the attached graphic, shipments from primary elevators on the Prairies are marginally higher than seen in 2015 and above the five-year average. While year-to-date exports through licensed facilities are above average, exports total 1.08 mmt or 11% below the same period in 2015. The largest drags on export volumes are seen in wheat (952,500 mt) and canola (447,500 mt), with the year-over-year decrease shown in brackets. A year-over-year increase is seen in licensed exports of durum (56,400 mt), dry peas (197,100 mt) and bulk lentils (14,900 mt).

Space in country elevators as of week 12 could be viewed as fair, with primary elevator stocks of all principal crops at 3.4573 mmt, a three-week high which represents 49.2% of the system's total capacity and 75.6% of the prairie system working capacity.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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