Canada Markets

Licensed Cumulative Exports as of Week 4

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Total Canadian grain exports through licensed facilities as of week 4 or the week ending August 28 (blue bar) are well-below the 2015 pace (gold bar) and the 2011-through-2015 average (grey bar). Wheat exports (excluding durum) are well-behind 2015 and the five-year average. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Week 4 Canadian Grain Commission statistics, which covers activity for the week ending Aug. 28, shows total cumulative exports of all major grains through licensed export facilities at 1.955 million metric tons, down from 2.864 mmt reported for the same period last year and the five-year average of 2.376 mmt. This comparison is shown on the attached graphic, along with data from selected crops.

Tighter stocks and perhaps apprehension surrounding canola exports to China during August were perhaps partially behind the slower movement. Producer.com reports a Reuters' poll which reveals an industry pre-report average of all-wheat stocks as of July 31 at 4.29 mmt, down 39.3% from the 2015 carryout and would be the lowest seen in Statistics Canada data going back to 1980. This volume is close to the current AAFC estimate of 4.2 mmt, while well-below the five-year average of 7.175 mmt.

Canola stocks are also expected to show a sharp contrast from the previous year in Wednesday's report. The average pre-report ending stocks estimate is pegged at 1.27 mmt, down 45% from the 2.322 mmt reported at the end of July 2015. At the same time, the threat of China's move to lower the allowable dockage in its canola imports as of Sept. 1 saw only a trickle of sales made in August before the Sept. 1 deadline, prior to the announcement of an extension granted as talks continue. Canola exports, as of week 4, were reported at a cumulative 434,000 metric tons, 32% below the same period in 2015; this volume is slightly higher than the five-year average.

The same survey points to the potential for tight pulse crop stocks in Wednesday's report, which would also have affected export potential in August. The average dry pea stocks estimate is pegged at 210,000 mt, in line with current AAFC estimates and 69.3% below the estimate for 2014/15. Lentil ending stocks are estimated at just 80,000 mt, which would be down 78% from July 31 2015, which would be the lowest estimated carryout since July 2010.

Of the crops shown, oat volumes exported in the first four weeks of the crop year were higher than both 2015 and the five-year average.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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