Canada Markets

Saskatchewan Agriculture Releases Preliminary Yield Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart provides a glimpse of potential Saskatchewan crop production for selected crops for 2016 as compared to 2015 and the 2011-to-2015 average, given Saskatchewan Agriculture's Aug. 15 yield estimates, Statistics Canada's June acreage estimates and historical harvested acre relationships. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

According to Saskatchewan Agriculture's Aug. 18 crop report which covers the recent week ending Aug. 15, provincial yields for most crops are expected to be well-above long-term averages. The notable exceptions are chickpea and lentil crops which fared poorly given the excessive moisture received over many areas of the province. As of Aug. 17, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada maps show a significant area of southwestern and west-central Saskatchewan receiving 150% to 200% of average precipitation in the April 1 through Aug. 17 period, while a small area in and around the South Saskatchewan River has received greater than 200% of average precipitation over this same period.

The attached graphic looks at potential provincial production for selected crops given today's yield estimates while utilizing Statistics Canada's Principal field crop areas released in July. Given this study, here are just a few findings:

-- Saskatchewan lentil yields for 2016 were estimated at 1,250 pounds/acre. This would be the lowest provincial yield since 2007, 14.9% below the five-year average and 8.5% below the 10-year average. At the same time, the 42.5% increase in seeded acres, according to Statistics Canada's June estimate of a record 5.275 million seeded acres could lead to production nearing 3 million metric tons, well-above average. While this does not account for lost acres due to flooding, it is also possible that Statistics Canada may further increase seeded acres in next week's report.

-- Dry pea production will likely be well-above 2015 and long-term averages. A combination of an estimated yield of 40 bpa, second only to the 42.4 bpa reached in 2013, along with seeded acres of 2.2 million acres could result in production of 2.4 mmt.

-- Today's data points to the potential for an average durum yield of 45 bpa, a yield that would be 15.2% above the five-year average and 26% above the province's 10-year average. Seeded acres are estimated to be unchanged from 2015 at 5 million acres, which could result in a 6 mmt, record sized crop. Quality will be the key in the durum market going forward.

-- Hard red spring wheat is expected to yield 43 bpa, 9.5% above the five-year average and 18.5% higher than the 10-year average. June estimates showed a sharp year-over-year decline in hard red spring wheat acres to 6.1 million acres which may be a record low for the province. This study estimates hard red spring wheat production at 7.05 mmt, a five-year low.

-- The province's canola crop will be a big one. Yield was estimated at 37 bpa, second only to the 38.2 bpa record achieved in 2013. The province's production could exceed 9 mmt for the second time ever, while rivaling the record production of 9.178 mmt reached in 2013.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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