Canada Markets

A Look at Recent DTN 360 Polls

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Monday's Canada Markets Blog looks at recent DTN 360 polls.

The most recent poll asked what crops will see the largest revisions take place in future Statistics Canada planted acreage estimates. While one-third of respondents were undecided, close to one half of respondents (44%) indicated that the estimated wheat acreage is too high and will be subject to downward revisions. A further 12% of respondents felt that canola acres will be increased in future reports, as is often the normal tendency for Statistics Canada estimates, while a similar 11% of respondents felt that the drop in estimated acres for crops such as oats and flax is overstated and the area seeded to these crops will increase in future reports.

Given the sharp 48% year-over-year increase in estimated area planted to lentils on the Prairies, no one responded that lentil acres will be revised lower. Given the expansion in area seeded to pulses, two-thirds of Saskatchewan respondents and one-half of Manitoba respondents have indicated that wheat acres will be cut further in later reports, which could lead to even higher pulse acres along with canola acres.

Another recent question focused on AAFC's estimate for tight Canadian wheat stocks (excluding durum) and whether stocks are as tight as suggested in this estimate. Note that at the time of the poll the wheat carryout was pegged at just 3 million metric tons and has since been revised to 3.2 mmt in the July supply and demand estimates. Clearly the consensus in this unscientific poll suggested that wheat stocks will indeed be tight, with two-thirds of respondents suggesting that stocks will be extremely tight, while the other one-third of respondents indicated they are uncertain and have little faith in these estimates. It is interesting to note that the respondents who overwhelmingly suggested that stocks were as tight as indicated in government estimates were located in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

As of week 50, or the week ending July 17, commercial stocks of wheat (excluding durum) were reported at 2.0488 mmt, down 30% from last year and 15.5% below the five-year average.

One last poll, which ended mid-July, asked the question what best describes the overall crop condition in your area at the time. At the time, 69% of respondents indicated a good-to-excellent rating overall, with the highest ratings indicated in Alberta and Manitoba, followed by Saskatchewan. Roughly one-third of Ontario respondents responded with a good-to-excellent rating.

As well, 13% of respondents viewed the crop as rated fair, 12% poor and 6% very poor. Two thirds of Ontario respondents viewed their crop as poor as of mid-July.

The current DTN 360 Poll asks if you think the railways are positioned to haul a large crop off of the Prairies if required this fall. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this and other future DTN 360 Polls at the lower-right of your DTN Home Page.

DTN would like to thank all for their involvement in past polls.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(CZ)

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