Canada Markets

June Price Trends Based on Five- and 10-Year Averages

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart looks at historical price trends in the month of June for selected commodities, based on the five- and 10-year average percent change of either the nearby futures contract or in the case of peas and lentils, producer bids delivered to Saskatchewan plants. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The attached chart looks at the average percent change in price seen in the past five years (2011 -2015) and the past 10 years (2006-2015) for selected commodities, for the benefit of those holding unpriced old-crop stocks.

Row crops such as corn and soybeans showed the greatest potential over the month of June given the move seen in the continuous futures over the month. Soybeans moved 3.7% higher on average over the past five years and 4.9% higher over 10 years. The continuous contract lost ground over the month in only two of the 10 years from 2006 to 2010, with the average loss over the two years at 81 1/4 cents.

Corn prices gained 3.3% on average during June over the past five years, while increasing 5.2% on average over the past 10 years. Prices only advanced in five of the 10 years in question, gaining an average of $1.04/bu over the five years, while losing an average of $.63/bu over the five losing years.

Canola also tends to have a favorable month in June, the tail end of its seasonal move. Over the past five years, the continuous canola future has gained an average of 2.7% in June while the 10-year period shows an average 2.8% gain. Once again, prices have advanced in five of the 10 years, although the average gain of $41/mt over the five years which posted a price increase outweighs the average loss of $16.30/mt over the five losing years.

Of the three wheat classes (SRW, HRW and HRS), only hard red spring wheat showed a consistent increase in average price in June across the five- and 10-year period. The five-year average hike in June price was .5%, while the 10-yaar average is 2.2%. Prices moved higher in six of the 10 years between 2006 and 2015.

Pulse crops do not seem to enjoy the June market as compared to the grains and oilseeds. Large green lentil prices delivered to Saskatchewan plants lost 2.6% in price over the past five years while .6% lower on average over the past 10 years. Yellow peas also respond poorly in June, with the average price falling .4% over the past four years and have ended .1% higher on average over 10 years.

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DTN 360 Poll

This week's question asks whether you think the May 10 oilseed rally was a one-time opportunity for both old-crop and new-crop sales. You can weigh in with your thoughts on DTN's poll, found on the lower-right side of your DTN Home Page.

We thank you for sharing your thoughts on this and past polls.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(ES)

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