Canada Markets

A Look at Producer Deliveries as of Week 16

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Producer deliveries of all grains into licensed facilities as of week 16, or the week ending Nov. 22, representing approximately 31% of the crop year, are higher than seen in 2014 and also above the five-year average for this period. (DTN graphic by Scott R Kemper)

Producer deliveries into licensed facilities for all grains totaled 17.416 million metric tons as of week 16, or the week ending Nov. 22. This period represents approximately 31% of the crop year. This volume is just .3% higher than the same period in 2014, although is almost 2.4 mmt or 15.8% above the five-year average. Interestingly, grain is being delivered at a faster pace than seen in the fall of 2013, given that year's record production.

Producer deliveries of wheat and durum (blue bars) as of week 16 are slightly lower than 2014 (red bars) although still above the five-year average (green bars). The year-over-year change is perhaps understandable; cumulative all-wheat deliveries are 6.7% below 2014 when year-over-year production fell 11.4%, looking at Statistics Canada's latest estimates.

Of interest are the canola deliveries. Producer deliveries of canola are reported at 5.704 mmt so far this crop year, up 6% from 2014, and 16.4% above the five-year average for this period. The most recent week 16 deliveries were reported at 350,500 mt, the highest weekly deliveries in eight weeks. This will continue to keep pressure on canola's cash markets, with commercial stocks climbing in the past week to 1.528 mmt, leaving the industry well-supplied despite demand remaining above last year's record pace. As well, the industry will notice a ripple effect across other grains as increased canola sales may postpone the timing of other grain or special crop sales.

Not shown on the attached graphic are soybeans and lentils due the lack of historical data. As of week 16, producers have delivered 576,100 metric tons of bulk lentils, up 70% from last year and well above the 285,500 mt average reported over the past two years for this period.

As well, 321,000 mt of soybeans have been delivered into licensed facilities in the west, up 118% from last year while supporting the rapid growth in export volumes moved off of the West Coast.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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