Canada Markets

Canada's Week 15 All-Wheat Exports

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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As of Week 15 or the week ending Nov. 15, Canada's all-wheat exports from licensed facilities total 6.337 million metric tons. The green bars represent the weekly volumes shipped as compared to the weekly volume needed to stay on track to reach the current AAFC export target of 20.2 mmt (blue line), as measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line represents the steady pace needed to reach the current target, while the red line shows the cumulative volume shipped, as measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Monday's weekly export inspection report in the United States showed that country's wheat export inspections as of the week ending Nov. 19 totaling 365.2 million bushels or 9.939 million metric tons. This volume is 16% lower than seen in the same period in the 2014/15 crop year and compares to the current USDA estimate for only a 6% drop in all-wheat exports in 2015/16 to 800 mb or 21.8 mmt. Note that the 800 mmt target suggests exports this crop year would reach the lowest levels seen since 1971/72 when USDA data shows 610 mb shipped.

Week 15 data from the Canadian Grain Commission, covering data to the end of the week ending November 15, shows cumulative exports of wheat from licensed facilities at 5.173 mmt, a volume which is only 3% below the same week in 2014/15 and 22.9% above the five-year average for week 15, or the first 29% of the crop year.

Cumulative durum exports are reported at 1.164 mmt as of Week 15, down 24.8% from the same week last year and 7.6% below the five-year average.

The current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada target for all-wheat exports totals 20.2 mmt (16 mmt wheat and 4.2 mmt durum), a volume left unchanged in the November release which came out today. This is down 15.6% from total exports reported for 2014/15, which includes unlicensed exports as well as the export of wheat flour.

The attached chart shows the combined all-wheat exports utilizing weekly Canadian Grain Commission data, which reports exports from licensed facilities only. The green bars indicate weekly all-wheat exports, which can compare to the blue line which indicates the volume, needed each week to reach the current 20.2 mmt target, both measured against the left or primary vertical axis. The past four weeks have seen a total of 1.820 mmt exported, greater than any other four-week period this crop year.

The red line is trending higher than the black line, which represents the cumulative pace needed to reach the 20.2 mmt target. At present, wheat exports are 557,915 mt above the cumulative volume needed to reach the current 16 mmt target as of week 15, excluding the impact of exports of flour and unlicensed exports. Durum exports as of week 15 are running 47,439 mt below the cumulative volume needed to reach the current 4.2 mmt export target for durum. Combined, exports of all-wheat are 510,470 mt above the cumulative target needed to reach current targets.


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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(ES)

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