Canada Markets

August-September Exports Compared to Year-Ago Volumes

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Statistics Canada's Exports of grains by final destination report shows a slow start to the export year for the first two months of the crop year. For the first two months combined, the selected grains show only oats and canola to be ahead of the year-ago pace, up 14.5% and 6.9% respectively. Durum volumes remain the furthest behind year-ago levels, down 67.1%. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Statistics Canada's release of the Exports of grains by final destination which covers exports of wheat, durum, oats, barley, rye, flaxseed, canola, wheat flour and malt shows the total volume exported in August and September, the first two months of the 2015/16 crop year, to be down 1 million metric tons or 16% from the same period in 2014/15.

Total wheat exports are down 11.7% in the first two months to 3.253 mmt. Some of the declines in exports were seen into the European Union, with exports falling 40%, the Middle East (66%), Africa (24%) and the United States (28%), with year-over-year reductions in volume shown in brackets.

According to the USDA's November WASDE report, U.S. wheat imports (excluding durum) are expected to fall just 15% this crop year from year-ago levels.

Gains were seen into Asian countries in the first two months of this crop year, with volume up 36.9% overall. Year-over-year increases were noted in China (509%), Indonesia (39.8%) and Japan (42%), with year-over-year percent gains in brackets.

Total durum exports are facing the largest year-over-year drop in volumes in the first two months given the selected crops. To the end of September, 312,641 metric tons of durum was exported, down 67.1% from the same period in 2014/15.

Exports into Western Europe fell by 69.6% in the first two months, with year-over-year drops of 100% seen in Belgium and 57.7% in Italy. Total exports to Africa have fallen by 83%, with a 100% drop in the volume shipped to Algeria and a 72% drop to Morocco. The first two months, exports to the U.S. are down 63% to 34,541 mt from year-ago levels. The USDA's November report forecast only a 20% year-over-year drop in U.S. imports of durum.

The year-over-year increase in canola exports is 6.9% higher than the first two months of 2014/15. Total Asian demand is flat, up .3% from year-ago levels. Exports to China in the two-month period totals 564,500 mt, down 4.7%, while movement to Japan is down .4% from last year to 397,600 mt. Gains in export volumes to Asian countries were achieved in Bangladesh that was shipped 46,800 mt in September, the first movement to this country in 18 months.

Other notable increases in canola demand was seen in the United Arab Emirates, where volume shipped was 210% higher than last year in the August/September period at 141,500 mt. Movement to Mexico increased 26.8% to 244,800 mt in the first two months of this crop year.

Demand for Canadian grains remains solid. Quorum Corporation's weekly Performance Update indicates the week 15 vessel lineup, or the week ending November 15, totaled 21 vessels in Vancouver, with the long-term average reported to be eight to 12 vessels. A further three vessels were in the line-up for Prince Rupert, which is equal to the historical average of two to three vessels.


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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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