The large global supply of grain, along with global currency impacts, is having a significant impact on North American grain exports. Last week's export inspections in the United States show year-to-date volumes that are 25% below last year for corn, down 17% from last year for wheat and 4% above last year's volumes for soybeans. This data could result in revised demand targets for the 2015/16 crop year in tomorrow's USDA report.
As of week 13, or the first quarter of the 2015/16 crop year, exports from Canada's licensed facilities of all major grains and oilseeds in Canada are reported to be 10.946 million metric tons, down approximately .3% from year-ago volumes.
Shipments from primary elevators across the three prairie provinces and British Columbia as of week 13, or the week ending Nov. 1, is reported at 11.210 mmt, down 4.8% from last year, but 16.4% or nearly 1.6 mmt higher than the five-year average for the same period.
The attached chart shows the cumulative primary elevator shipments by province as of week 13 for 2015, as well as the five years between 2010/11 and 2014/15. Year-over-year increases have been reported for both Manitoba and British Columbia as of week 13, while year-to-date shipping from Saskatchewan and Alberta are lagging year-ago pace.
By crop (not shown), some of the largest year-over-year percent drops in shipping is seen in durum (minus 24.1%), flax (minus 23.7%), wheat (minus 8.1%), oats (minus 7.7%) and barley (minus 5%), with the percent change in brackets. Primary elevator shipping of canola is 2.6% ahead of last year, as of week 13. Significant year/year percentage increases in the shipping of corn, soybeans and lentils are also reported.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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