Canada Markets

Canada's September Trade Data

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the year-over-year percent change in August/September exports for selected pulse and special crops. The red line with markers represents the percentage of the 2015/16 export forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada achieved after two months, with data accounting for 16.7% of the crop year. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Canada's imports fell in September while exports rose, a desirable combination which saw Canada's trade deficit fall to $1.7 billion in September from $2.7 billion the previous month. This is the 12th consecutive monthly trade deficit reported, although well-below the March 2015 trade deficit of $3.597 billion, signaling that -- as hoped for -- Canada's low dollar is slowly affecting trade data.

The country's total exports for September were reported at $44.5 billion (balance of payments, seasonally adjusted), the third highest month reported for this calendar year, just slightly below the highs reached in June and July and down .7% from September 2014. The farm, fishing and intermediate food product category saw exports reported at $2.7065 billion for the month, a four-month low, but 6.4% above September 2014. Canada's energy products exports are reported at $6.95 billion for the month, up 3.7% from last month, but 32.5% below September 2014.

The dollar value of wheat exports increased to $548.9 million in September, the second lowest level seen this calendar year and 16% below September 2014. The dollar value of canola exports is reported at $509.8 million, a three-month low, but 31% above September 2014.

Here's a look at some of today's data reported for smaller crops:

-- September's lentil exports were reported at 353,901 metric tons, likely the largest monthly volume ever reported. Crop-year-to-date, which includes the first two months of the crop year, exports total 414,956 mt, 39.8% above the same period in 2014 and 47.7% above the three-year average. Given that this represents exports for the first 16.7% of the crop year, cumulative exports are 21.8% of the current 1.9 million metric ton target set by AAFC, well-ahead of the cumulative volume needed to reach this target.

-- Mustard exports for September were reported at 9,570 mt, up slightly from August and 19.5% higher than September 2014. August/September cumulative exports are 10.2% above last year and 3.8% above the three-year average. Cumulative exports represent 15.9% of the current 120,000 mt export target and are slightly below the pace needed to reach this target.

-- Sunflower exports for September were reported at 2,607 mt, down from August but well-above September 2014. Cumulative exports are 72.3% above 2014 and 33.5% above the three-year average. This volume represents 12.2% of AAFC's current 50,000 mt export target, behind the pace needed to reach the current target.

-- Canary seed exports dipped slightly in September, down 29.5% from September 2014 at 9,107 mt. Year-to-date, exports are 31.3% below 2014's volume and 17.1% below the three-year average. With data representing the first 16.7% of the crop year, cumulative exports are 11.5% of the 165,000 mt target and behind the pace needed to reach this volume.

-- Chickpea exports for September were reported at 6,834 mt, down sharply from August, but 20.8% above September 2014. Year-to-date exports are 58.3% ahead of 2014's pace and 66% above the three-year average. Current cumulative movement equates to 22.2% of the most recent 85,000 mt target, ahead of the cumulative pace needed to reach this target.

While yesterday's Canada Markets Blog reported dry pea exports at a record pace, this was based on recent data from the Canadian Grain Commission, focusing on exports through licensed terminals only. Today's Statistics Canada data release, as of the end of September, indicates September's total exports at 563,472 mt, well-below the 721,308 mt reported for the same month last year. Total cumulative exports are reported at 818,638 mt, 14.8% below the 2014 volume and 19.9% above the three-year average. This volume represents 28.2% of the current AAFC target of 2.9 mmt, well-ahead of the pace needed to reach this target.


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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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