Canada Markets

Statistics Canada data shows a tendency for most Canadian crops to grow in size on paper between the September estimate released in early October and the final estimates, which includes the November estimate released in early December as well as subsequent adjustments. This crop year's November estimates are scheduled to be released on Dec. 4.

When considering the five-year average percent change between the September estimates and the final production figures, which are subject to revision for two years after release according to Statistics Canada, seven of the eight selected crops saw production increase. The percent changed ranged from 6.4% to 14.4%.

Over the five-year period (2010 through 2014), Canada's all-wheat production rose an average of 6.4% while Canada's durum production rose an average of 6.8%. The final wheat estimate was higher than the October estimate in all five years, ranging from 1.8% in 2012 to 13.6% in 2013. In just one of the five years the final durum estimate was slightly lower than the September estimate, ranging from minus .6% in 2010 to 16.6% in 2013.

Of the selected grains, the largest increases were seen in canola, soybeans and pulse crops. The average change in canola production averaged 14.4% over the five years in question, ranging from a 3.8% increase in 2012 to a 22.6% increase in 2010. The final estimate was higher than the September estimates in all five years. Canada's soybean production increased an average of 11.2% over the five years between October and the final estimate, ranging from 1.5% higher in 2014 to 18.8% higher in 2012.

Pulse crops also show a large increase in production from the October estimate to the final estimate. Over the five-year period, dry pea production increased an average of 13.7%, ranging from a 4.8% change in 2013 to a 24.6% increase in 2011. Not shown are lentils due to missing data, although an average taken of four of the past five years (excluding 2012) indicates the final production estimate is an average of 21.1% above the September estimate. In two of the four years (2010 and 2013) the percent change from the September estimate to the final estimate exceeded 30%.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(ES)

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