Canada Markets

One More Reason why Canadian Crops may be Larger than Estimated

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Canadian crops tend to get bigger on paper between the release of the July production estimates to the release of the final estimates. This chart shows the average percent change over the past five years between the July estimates released in August and the release of the final production figures. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Media reports released before and after the release of the Statistics Canada report August 21 suggested the possibility that the report's production estimates could be understated, given more cooperative weather since the end of the survey period. The trade paid fleeting attention to this report and there was no or little impact to the markets.

The attached chart shows that on average over the past five years, Canadian crop production estimates for selected crops have tended to increase between the release of the July estimates and the final production estimates.

Among the selected crops, the largest shifts are seen in estimates for both soybeans and canola. In the five years from 2010 to 2014, the final soybean production estimate exceeded the July estimate in each of the five years; the average percent change between the two is 11.6%, ranging from a 2.5% change in 2014 to a maximum of a 15.6% change in 2011. The next largest average percent change was seen in the canola market, at 10.4%. Final production exceeded the July estimates in all but one of the five years, with the percent change ranging from minus 10% in 2012 to a change of 21.9% in 2013.

Of the eight selected crops, only barley production tends to be overestimated in the July production estimates as indicated in the 2010 to 2014 data. Final barley production tended to be lower than the July estimates in four of the five years in question, with the five-year average at minus 3%.

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