Canada Markets

Today's USDA report trimmed the country's annual all-wheat export target by 20 million bushels (544,307 metric tons) to 880 mb or 23.949 mmt. This is the second cut to this estimate this calendar year, with the estimate reduced 25 mb to 900 mb in February in addition to today's cut.

One thing that immediately jumps out with this number is that this volume is only 1 mmt above AAFC's March estimate of Canada's all-wheat exports at 22.9 mmt. Today's USDA report has pegged Canada's all-wheat exports at 23.5 mmt for 2014/15, up 500,000 mt from last month and within 450,000 mt of knocking the U.S. from the position of the No. 2 wheat exporter in the world.

The 880 mb export estimate released for the United States would be the smallest exported volume since the 2009/10 crop year, when 879 mb was exported, only 1 mb lower. Prior to that crop year, the next lowest volume exported from the U.S. was recorded in 2002/03 when 850 mb were exported.

On the negative side, the USDA has cut expected U.S. imports of wheat this month, the second cut since January. Since the import estimate reached a high of 180 mb or roughly 4.9 mmt in the December and January reports, there was a 20 mb cut in February and an additional 15 mb cut today to 145 mb or 3.95 mmt.

Broken down by major class, as seen on the attached chart, the largest moves in estimated import volumes over the crop year have been seen in spring wheat and durum import estimates. Estimated spring wheat imports (red line) reached a high of 2.31 mmt in the October report and have been cut three times since to 1.77 mmt today, a drop of 540,000 mt. This volume would represent 84.4% of the volume of hard red spring wheat imported in 2013/14.

The expected durum import volume (purple line) reached a high in the December and January reports of 2.18 mmt and has since been cut twice to 1.77 mmt today. This would still be 2.3% above the volume imported in 2013/14.

Hard red winter imports into the U.S. for 2014/15 are estimated at 272,153 mt, 52.6% of last year, while SRW imports are estimated at 408,230 mt, or 71.4% of last year.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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