Canada Markets

Statistics Canada released their monthly Exports of Canadian Grains report Tuesday for selected grains and products over the first six months of the crop year.

As seen on the attached chart, Canada's wheat exports in the first six-months of the crop year, at 8.654 million metric tonnes, are higher than the same period in 2013/14 and the three-year average from 2011/12 to 2013/14. The highest volume was shipped to the United States in this period at 992,820 metric tonnes, although this volume is 34% below the 1.506 mmt shipped to the United States in the same period of 2013/14. The next two largest wheat customers are Indonesia at 680,200 mt, up 9.1% from last year and Japan at 612,800 mt, down 6.5% from 2013/14. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has estimated Canada's total wheat exports to reach 18.2 mmt over the crop year in their most recent February report, leaving total volumes shipped behind the pace necessary to meet this target.

Durum exports in the first half are reported at 2.983 mmt, well above last year's pace and the average of the past three years. The largest volume reported is to Italy, at 861,100 mt, 96% above the year-ago volume. The second-largest importer of Canadian durum is the United States, at 394,922 mt, shipped in the first six months, 31,176 mt, or 6.6%, above year-ago volumes. Third on the list is Algeria, receiving 373,700 mt, which is 212,700 mt higher than last year's volume. AAFC's estimate for 2014/15 durum exports are pegged at 4.9 mmt, leaving the reported volume at the end of January ahead of the pace needed to reach the annual target.

Oat exports as of Jan. 31 are reported at 892,951 mt, well above last year's volume moved in the same period while slightly below the average of the past three years. Movement to the U.S. is reported at 866,582 mt, 126,910 mt, or 17%, above year-ago volumes. AAFC's forecast for total exports of oats in 2014/15 are reported at 2.075 mmt, leaving total exports at the end of January slightly below the steady pace needed to reach this target.

August through January barley exports are reported at 859,475 mt, almost 36% above last year's pace and also well ahead of the average pace seen in the past three years. China, the U.S. and Japan are the three primary buyers, all of whom have boosted year-over-year volumes. China has more than tripled volume in the first six months to 468,000 mt, taking over 50% of the total export volume. The United States is the second-largest importer at 206,575 mt, up 23.4% from last year. The next largest is Japan, who has also boosted volumes to 160,900 mt this crop year. With AAFC's export target set at 2.150 mmt, year to date exports are just slightly behind the steady pace needed to reach the 2014/15 target.

Exports of flax for the period in question were reported at 359,807 mt, 26% above the year-ago volume and well above the three-year average. Of this volume, nearly half has been shipped to China, with their volume of 168,314 mt up 37% from last year's volume. The second-largest customer is Belgium, with 93,776 mt shipped, up 49% from year-ago volumes. Total exports for this crop year are pegged at 700,000 mt, leaving the Jan. 31 exports ahead of the pace needed to reach the annual target.

Canada's canola shipments in the first six months totaled 4.371 mmt, up 14% from year-ago volumes and also above the three-year average. The largest volume shipped is to China, with their 1.825 mmt being 8.9% above year-ago volumes. The next largest volume was shipped to Japan, with 1.207 mmt shipped, which is 25.7% above the volume shipped in the August through January period last crop year. Mexico was the third-largest customer at 705,500 mt, slightly higher than last year's volume. With 2014/15 exports pegged at 9.2 mmt, exports to the end of January are behind the steady pace needed to reach this volume.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(ES)

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