Canada Markets

Week 31 Statistics Shows Canola Exports Lagging

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
@CliffJamieson
As of week 31, the 60% mark of the current crop year, weekly exports (green bars) continue to fall short of the volume needed most weeks (blue line) to stay on track to meet the 9.2 mmt export target set by AAFC, as measured against the left vertical axis. The black line represents the steady cumulative pace needed to meet the target, while the red line shows the actual cumulative volume falling short of this volume, measured against the right vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
As of week 31, the 60% mark of the current crop year, weekly exports (green bars) continue to fall short of the volume needed most weeks (blue line) to stay on track to meet the 9.2 mmt export target set by AAFC, as measured against the left vertical axis. The black line represents the steady cumulative pace needed to meet the target, while the red line shows the actual cumulative volume falling short of this volume, measured against the right vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Week 31 data shows just 72,300 metric tonnes of canola exported in the week ending March 8, among the 11 weeks this crop year that have seen weekly export volumes below 100,000 mt. As seen on the attached chart, only 11 of the 31 weeks have seen weekly volumes meet or exceed the weekly volume needed to achieve the export target forecast by the government, shown by the green bars exceeding the blue line as measured against the left vertical axis.

As a result, the actual pace of exports (red line) has fallen close to 697,000 mt behind the steady pace or cumulative volume needed to reach the 9.2 mmt target (licensed exports only) as seen on the chart with the red line drifting further away from the upward-sloping black line, as measured against the right vertical axis.

Visible stocks (excluding in-transit volumes) remain high at 1.4947 million metric tonnes, 33% higher than the year-ago volume and 26% higher than the three-year average. While this volume is high, perhaps a greater concern should be where stocks are located. Of the visible stocks reported, just 60,600 mt were situated in position in export terminals on the West Coast. This volume is 58.6% below year-ago West Coast stocks and 70.2% below the average west coast stocks for week 31 over the past three years. 

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As well, in-transit volumes are lower than past years. At 110,300 mt, week 31 in-transit stocks are 42% lower than year-ago volumes and 38.8% below the three-year average.

Cash basis levels have weakened in recent weeks, as have forward basis levels through the April/May period which typically challenge grain handlers. The trade seems comfortable given close to 1 mmt in prairie elevators.

The USDA's Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report for March has pegged Canada's canola exports at 8.6 mmt, 600,000 mt below the Canadian government's 9.2 mmt estimate. The USDA views the 2014/15 carryout in Canada at 2.1 mmt, well above the 1.450 mmt reported by AAFC. Current data suggests the USDA may be optimistic, while this month's release of Canada's supply and demand tables should show a weakening old-crop canola situation.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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As of week 31, the 60% mark of the current crop year, weekly exports (green bars) continue to fall short of the volume needed most weeks (blue line) to stay on track to meet the 9.2 mmt export target set by AAFC, as measured against the left vertical axis. The black line represents the steady cumulative pace needed to meet the target, while the red line shows the actual cumulative volume falling short of this volume, measured against the right vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise) 
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