Canada Markets

In his recent blog, DTN Contributing Analyst Joe Karlin looks at the acreage trends for soybeans in the United States over the past 25 years. Karlin observed a significant growth in soybean acres in what he views as non-traditional growing areas, which includes the growth of acres in North and South Dakota where soybeans have gained acres at the expense of spring wheat, durum, canola and sunflowers. By far the fastest growing acreage has been in North Dakota where soybean acres have grown at an annual compound growth rate of over 10% in the past 25 years.

Karlin notes that total U.S. soybean acres have increased by 45% (1990 to 2014), while they have increased 16% in the past 10 years and 8% over the past five years. This compares to the Canadian acreage which has grown 365% over the past 25 years since 1990, 92% in the 10 years since 2005 and 49% in the past five years since 2010.

The attached chart shows the five-, 15- and 25-year compounded annual percent changes in Canada's soybean acreage along with the growth seen in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba (note that Manitoba data includes the compound rate of growth for the past five years and the past 13 years due to the lack of available data).

Canada's annual compound rate of growth (CAGR) of soybean acres is calculated at 5.9% over the past 25 years (green bars), with a more rapid rate of growth in the past five years of 9.6% (blue bars). By far the fastest rate of growth is seen in Manitoba, with a 28.3% CAGR over the past 13 years (2001 to 2014) while achieving a 25.1% CAGR over the past five years.

The slowest rate of growth is in Ontario, where 55% of Canada's crop was seeded in 2014. Over the past 25 years, the CAGR is calculated at 3.5% based on Statistics Canada data, while the last five years has seen an average of 4.4% CAGR in acres seeded.

Saskatchewan's data for acres seeded to soybeans is limited to two years, with the government starting to poll for data starting in 2013. In that year, 170,000 acres were seeded, while the following year saw a 59% increase to 279,000 acres.

Current trade projections for 2015/16 are indicating acres dedicated to soybeans to remain steady to higher. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is forecasting acres to increase 4.4% across the country to 5.8 million acres.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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