Canada Markets

Canada's trade balance with the world widened in the month of December from $335 million in November to $649 million in December, but not as great as the $1.2 billion trade gap expected in a Thomson-Reuters survey. During the month of December, imports increased 2.3% while exports increased 1.5%. Over the course of 2014, Canada's merchandise trade balance with all countries moved from a deficit of $7.2 billion in 2013 to 2014's surplus of $5.2 billion.

Farm, fishing and intermediate food products was reported at $2.543 billion for December 2014, up 3.7% over November and also 9.2% above December 2013. Exports from this category were one of the eight of 11 sectors which posted monthly gains which helped offset the 10.3% month/month reduction in exports of energy products.

Touching on some of Canada's smaller crop data, lentil exports for the month of December totaled 212,560 metric tonnes, down 6.6% from November but a significant volume given the time of year. Cumulative exports for the August through December period have exceeded 1 million metric tonnes to 1.04 mmt, 172% of the same-period volume in 2013 and 180% of the three-year average. This record pace of lentil movement explains the extremely tight Dec. 31 stocks reported by Statistics Canada of 755,000 mt which is down 47.9% from year-ago volumes. Exports are on track to meet or exceed the 1.650 mmt export target set by AAFC to leave an extremely tight carryout this crop year.

Exports of dry peas were reported at 289,684 mt for December, an increase of 46.6% from November. Cumulative exports this month total 1.76 mmt, 136% of last year's August through December volume and 145% of the three-year average for this period. This aggressive movement has also resulted in tight pea stocks as of Dec. 31 as reported in Wednesday's Statistics Canada report, which were reported at 1.556 mmt which is down 33.4% from last year. Exports are on track to exceed AAFC's estimated exports of 2.9 mmt with dry pea ending stocks expected to be extremely tight.

Canary seed exports for the month of December were reported at 10,663 mt, 64% below November's exported volume and the smallest monthly exports seen this crop year. Cumulative exports in the first five months of the crop year are calculated at 80,997 mt, 113.5% of the same period last year and 133.2% of the three-year average for the August through December period. Cumulative exports are ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the 165,000 mt export target set by AAFC. In the month of December, AAFC boosted projected annual exports by 35,000 mt to reach the 165,000 mt annual forecast while suggestions are made that total supplies are still grossly understated, which may allow for even higher exports.

Mustard exports for the month of December were reported at 9,596 mt, down 35.6% from November. Year-to-date exports total 53,402 mt, 86.4% of 2013 exports for this period and equal to the three-year average. Cumulative exports at 53,402 mt are slightly below the cumulative pace needed to reach the 135,000 mt export target set by AAFC.

Sunflower exports totaled 3,321 mt in the month of December, down 29% from November but the second highest monthly exports achieved this crop year. Cumulative exports of 13,185 mt are 68% of 2013 exports and 81% of the three-year average. Movement remains below the cumulative pace needed to achieve the 45,000 mt export target set by AAFC.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(CZ)

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