With the crop year now approximately 60% complete, week 31 wheat exports through licensed facilities, excluding durum, were reported at 164,800 metric tonnes, below the previous week which saw 320,460 mt shipped. The average of the previous three weeks was approximately 295,000 mt. As noted on the attached chart, 365,979 mt were needed this week in order to keep on pace to meet the current 17 million metric tonne target as set by Ag Canada, indicated by the sideways moving blue line, measured against the primary vertical axis on the left. Week 31 is the sixth week this crop year where weekly exports fell below 200,000 mt.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT T
The upward sloping black line represents the steady cumulative pace required to meet the 17 mmt target set by AAFC. The red line on the chart indicates the actual cumulative total shipped, which is reported at 9.171 mmt, falling short of the steady cumulative pace required by a volume of 963,515 metric tonnes. Note that this study ignores flour exports which are included in the AAFC targets. With the AAFC due to release updated export data any day, it would be no surprise to see this export target reduced for the third consecutive month.
At 9.171 mmt shipped year-to-date, exports remain 14.6% above year ago levels, while Canadian wheat production increased 37.4% in 2013/14.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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