Canada Markets

Canadian Canola Exports Catching Up?

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green bars represent weekly canola exports, while the blue line represents the volume needed each week to meet the 8 mmt canola export target, both measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line represents the steady cumulative volume needed to meet the 8 mmt target, while the red line represents the actual cumulative volume. (DTN Graphic by Scott R Kemper)

At first look at the attached chart, one would think canola exports are well behind the pace required to meet the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada export target of 8 million metric tonnes. The weekly export movement (green bars) exceeds the amount required each week (blue line) to meet the target in only eight of 18 weeks, as measured against the primary vertical axis on the left.

The cumulative data, however, tells a slightly different story, with the red line, or the cumulative volume shipped, moving towards the black line, which represents the steady cumulative volume required to meet the 8 mmt target. The convergence of these two lines would indicate that year to date, the industry is on track to meet the target.

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While it is hard to imagine how weekly data could indicate a lag while year-to-date data is caught up, the answer lies in the presentation of weekly data within the Grain Statistics Weekly from the Canadian Grain Commission. Most often, the year-to-date export figure for any given week exceeds the previous week's year-to-date exports added to the current week's export figure. I have yet to find out where the extra volume is found.

In order to meet the 8 mmt target, exports of 153,846 mt/week are required, given movement over the year's 52 weeks. Given a steady pace of movement, the week 18 target would then be 2.769 mmt (153,846 mt * 52 weeks), which compares to the 2.750 mmt year to date export figure reported by the Canadian Grain Commission as of week 18. This would suggest actual year-to-date exports are only 19,000 metric tonnes behind the pace required to reach 8 mmt for the year.

Despite record production and total supplies which are approximately 28% higher than last year, the 8 mmt target falls short of the 8.7 mmt exported in the 2011/12 crop year. We shall soon see if AAFC will bump this year's target when their December supply and demand tables are released.


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