Ag Weather Forum

A combination of drier weather and government support has the outlook for China's 2025-26 winter wheat crop looking much more favorable than just two weeks ago. At the end of October, wheat seeding progress in the North China Plain, the country's heartland for grain production, well behind average. Seeding progress was only about 25% complete at the end of October. Record October rain of more than 140 millimeters (5.5 inches) caused the big slowdowns. The delay was especially significant as the North China Plain region accounts for almost 60% of China's annual wheat production.

The last two weeks have seen major progress in seeding, however, thanks to a combination of a weather pattern change and a big infusion of government assistance. The North China Plain region has certainly had a more open stretch of weather in the last two weeks. Total rainfall in the region since early November is in the range of 0.5-1.5 inches, which falls into the "normal" category for precipitation. While that is not completely dry, those two-week totals are notably lighter than the heavy October totals which were 750% above normal.

As the drier pattern formed in the North China Plain, a government campaign to assist in seeding progress was started. This campaign was promoted as a 60-day emergency measure to help with getting wheat in the ground along with finishing fall row crop harvest. The government program had several features, including financing along with equipment and work crews.

As a result, wheat seeding progress has more than tripled since the end of October, according to published reports. The Vancouver, British Columbia-based Pressreader news service noted that the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs places winter wheat seeding progress at more than 80% region-wide as of Nov. 17. Seeding in Henan province is listed at near 80%; Anhui province over 80%; Jiangsu province near 65%: and Shandong and Shaanxi provinces approaching 90% seeded.

So, despite the expense and challenge caused by rainfall of more than seven times the normal amount during the optimum planting window, China's winter wheat crop appears to be on track for a promising recovery in early growth because of the favorable pattern change and the outpouring of government assistance. This turn of events also appears to keep the remarkable story of very few -- if any -- adverse winter wheat crop occurrences anywhere in the world as we approach the final weeks of this year.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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