Ag Weather Forum

September is starting out dry in the eastern Midwest. And it's a trend that's been going on for more than a month. Commentary from the U.S. Drought Monitor for Sept. 2 noted some record dryness in the Midwest.

"Widespread degradations were made across the region in response to precipitation shortfalls (ranging from 2 to 4+ inches) during the past 30-day period. Record to near-record dryness (for the past 30-day period) was observed at numerous observing stations across the region including Cincinnati Airport (AP), Ohio (-2.71 inch departure from normal; driest on record), Columbus AP, Ohio (-3.1 inches; driest on record), Springfield, Illinois (-3.21 inches; 2nd driest on record), and Springfield AP, Missouri (-3.45 inches; driest on record)," according to the SERCC (Southeast Regional Climate Center).

The Drought Monitor comments also reported "numerous drought impact reports (agricultural sector)" during the final week of August, mostly from southern Missouri, north-central Kentucky and southern Ohio.

Now, NOAA's National Interagency Drought Information System (NIDIS) has issued a special Midwest drought report and outlook. The NIDIS bulletin's key points include the rapid development and expansion of either Abnormally Dry conditions (D0 on the Drought Monitor) or Moderate to Severe Drought (Drought Monitor levels D1 and D2) during the past 30 days. Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are specifically noted. In addition, central Michigan is in Moderate to Severe Drought and has been for almost an entire year.

Declining soil moisture and low streamflow are leading to stress on crops and livestock. Low water levels in the Ohio River are also affecting river transportation on the Ohio and the Lower Mississippi waterways.

The NOAA/NIDIS report concluded that "Due to the potential for continued dry conditions and the return of above-normal temperatures by mid-September, drought is expected to persist through September across southeastern Missouri, far western Kentucky, southern and central Illinois, and Michigan. Further drought development is expected across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, northwest Kentucky, and southern Michigan."

A look at some DTN forecasts for rainfall during the balance of this week in the Midwest shows the following in inches: St. Louis, Missouri: zero; Peoria, Illinois: 0.18; Springfield, Illinois: 0.08; Indianapolis, Indiana: 0.04; Cincinnati, Ohio: zero; Paducah, Kentucky: 0.03; Lansing, Michigan: 0.05. Rainfall forecasts are as of Sept. 8.

A year ago, dryness at the end of the row crop season was a factor in lower corn and soybean yields at the end of the harvest season compared to initial estimates. USDA final yield numbers on corn were 4 bushels per acre (bpa) less and soybean final yields 2.5 bpa less than the August estimates.

The full NOAA/NIDIS drought discussion is available here: https://www.drought.gov/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.