Ag Weather Forum

This week's record U.S. corn production and corn yield were not the only records in the USDA NASS August production estimates. The national soybean yield is also expected to hit a new record this year. The USDA Aug. 12, 2025, report summary noted: "Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average a record high 53.6 bushels per acre (bpa), up 2.9 bushels from 2024." Total soybean production is pegged by USDA at 4.29 billion bushels (bb), 2% less than 2024; the big reason is reduced soybean acreage.

The soybean yield number estimate is worth a further look in relation to weather conditions at the end of the growing season. The USDA estimated 2025 soybean yield at 53.6 bpa, almost 6% above last year's final 50.7-bpa yield. However, we've seen this kind of yield estimate before. Just last year, the 2024 August USDA soybean production estimate called for a national average yield of 53.2 bpa, up 2.6 bpa or slightly more than 5% above the 2023 national average yield of 50.6 bpa. But when it was all done, the 2024 final yield of 50.7 bpa was basically unchanged from 2023's 50.6 bpa.

What happened to crimp the soybean yield? One place to start is to note how temperatures have trended to finish out summer. And, during most of the last 20 years, Septembers have been warm. The trend in Nebraska is a good example. Data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) show that Nebraska's average September temperatures are from 4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. "It's a strong warm trend," said University of Nebraska-Lincoln Meteorologist and Extension Educator Eric Hunt in an email.

Research on above-optimum temperatures during the filling phase of soybeans finds that yield can be reduced by as much as 29% under these conditions. That puts forecast temperatures for September in the spotlight as the soybean season winds down. And September looks warm. DTN's September forecast for central U.S. temperatures calls for values on average of 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Those are averages, meaning that individual days of temperatures running hotter than that range are likely. The main impact on soybean yield is almost entirely in reduced seed weights at harvest.

A notable positive feature compared to a year ago is the precipitation story. Last year, U.S. soybean areas were dry and very warm to hot. In most locales this year -- certainly in the Midwest and the Plains --precipitation during this summer has been well-above normal. That's definitely favorable.

This all makes for an interesting finish to the U.S. soybean season. The question is: Will the near-5% decline in soybean yields from the August estimate to the annual summary that we saw last year repeat in 2025? The soybean crop definitely has some unknowns as the season approaches the home stretch.

Regarding USDA corn yield estimates, see DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick's Ag Weather Forum blog, "Do WASDE Corn Yield Numbers Look Right? A Weather Perspective," at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

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Editor's Note: If you have been following the 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour, you'll know that our proprietary crop models also are showing high yields for most of the key corn and soybean producing states. As with most other yield models, the DTN models use satellite imagery which concentrates on the crop health signature given by the top of the crop. That imagery cannot peer into the canopy nor into the soil. So, any plant stress on the lower leaves or root issues might not yet be taken into account. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the DTN Digital Yield Tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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