Ag Weather Forum

As of Aug. 6, we are up to four named storms in the Atlantic basin. Tropical Storm Dexter has been the most recent storm, but it has remained well offshore of the East Coast of the United States.

It is almost guaranteed that Dexter will not be the last storm of the Atlantic hurricane season as we are just starting to head into the peak of the season. While hurricanes and tropical storms typically have the greatest impacts along coastal areas, their remnants can move inland and cause heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds that affect farmland.

During 2024, one of the more memorable hurricanes was Hurricane Helene. It made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region as a Category 4 hurricane on Sept. 26. A Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale has sustained winds of 130-156 mph. Its remnants caused impacts as far north as the Appalachian Mountains in the Carolinas. Over 10 inches of rain was observed in parts of northern Georgia and western North Carolina. The maximum amount of rainfall observed was 30.78 inches in Busick, North Carolina.

The heavy rainfall and flooding from Helene affected farmland across the Southeast. According to an article from the American Farm Bureau Federation from Feb. 18, 2025, Hurricane Helene caused more than $195 million in peanut losses and $164 million in cotton. Not only does the article detail the financial impacts from Hurricane Helene, but it gives a more extensive overview of 2024's crop losses from various weather events. To read more about 2024 crop losses from the AFBF, visit: https://www.fb.org/….

In a matter of days, crops in good-to-excellent condition can be wiped out from floods or high winds associated with a tropical storm or hurricane. The latest USDA NASS Crop Progress Report, released Aug. 4, shows that corn, soybeans and cotton have high ratings for their crop conditions in the Southeast. For example, 69% of cotton in North Carolina is rated in good-to-excellent condition. Mississippi has 67% of its soybeans rated in good-to-excellent condition while Louisiana has an impressive 93% of its soybeans rated good to excellent.

Looking ahead at the tropical forecast through mid-August, we're expecting more tropical waves to develop in the Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR is located near the equator in the Central Atlantic. As storms come off the western coast of Africa, they can strengthen if they have access to warm ocean waters and low wind shear. Wind shear is a measurement of wind direction and speed throughout the depth of the atmosphere. Most storms in the MDR will drift west and can eventually make it towards the Gulf or the East Coast of the U.S. if the conditions are just right.

Long-range model guidance hint at a potential tropical storm or hurricane to form within the MDR next week that could shift west towards either the southern Gulf or the eastern coast of the southeastern U.S by Aug. 15-17. We likely won't have a better idea for where exactly this potential storm may track until after it forms next week.

For meteorologists to determine where a tropical storm or hurricane will track, we look at the upper-air pattern as upper-air troughs and ridges can steer a hurricane and sometimes cause it to recurve. We see this from time to time as a hurricane moves through the Caribbean Sea and eventually curves to the northeast towards the East Coast.

As we head into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm season, it pays to be vigilant on what is going on in the Atlantic Ocean, as some of those storms can eventually lead to major economic impacts on U.S. farmers. Although farmers in the Southeast can sometimes experience the brunt of the tropical storm or hurricane, it's not unheard of to see remnants of the storms affecting portions of the Corn Belt, too.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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