Ag Weather Forum

A significant threat of a major severe weather event is being forecast for Kansas and the surrounding areas for Tuesday, June 17. Multiple periods of storms could lead to severe winds, hail and some tornadoes. But it will be the potential for a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that could mean widespread wind damage in the region later today and this evening.

Severe storms moved through Nebraska on Monday, June 16, and their remnants continued down through Kansas and now into northeast Oklahoma early on Tuesday. Some leftover severe weather potential continues with these storms. With energy coming out of the Rockies later Tuesday, widespread heat to the south, and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s, ingredients are there for producing severe weather throughout the day.

But with the early storms, the situation on when, where and how severe gets a little complicated. Trailing outflow boundaries, or the front-like features produced by large MCSs, are scattered about the region. These are both good for producing storms later in the morning to early afternoon, but complicate the overall situation, leading to uncertainty in the development of storms throughout the day. If there is enough clearing later this morning into early afternoon, thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon could become rather violent, leading to all severe weather risks. Much of Kansas and the surrounding areas are at risk for this potential, though the uncertainty is high.

However, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk (four out of five on their scale) for another big MCS to move through the region later this afternoon and evening. But even this comes with some uncertainty, depending on what earlier thunderstorms do. Still, what is being forecast is that storms develop over eastern Colorado this afternoon and organize into clusters near the Kansas border that could produce another MCS. If this does occur, the conditions will be favorable for widespread severe wind damage sweeping across the state. However, if there is significant storm coverage to its east, the MCS may degrade as it would have less potential energy available to continue. Regardless of that possibility, any MCS is expected to weaken significantly moving into Missouri overnight.

Should this MCS or any other severe weather develop Tuesday, there is a significant risk to the wheat crop in Kansas. Due to wet weather in May and June, harvest is well behind last year's pace of 25% complete. At just 3% harvested in Kansas as of June 15, the country's largest wheat producing state is at an enhanced risk of severe weather wiping out large portions of the crop. Heavy rain from thunderstorms would also be unfavorable, delaying harvest further and making it susceptible to disease and reducing quality.

See Monday's Crop Progress report here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

See Tuesday's Kansas Wheat Harvest Update here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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