Ag Weather Forum

With a very brief La Nina now well into the past, the weather pattern has been very wet across a large portion of the United States. Large-scale drought reduction has occurred across much of the Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as the East Coast.

Though some areas have been missed and drought remains a factor, most folks around the country are probably thinking that the wet spring may have an impact on the summer forecast. Unfortunately, it does not. An overall hotter and drier summer forecast still remains in place across a lot of the country, but with some exceptions.

This spring has been wet, and in some places, it has been very wet for a very long time. The weather pattern has produced a lot of cutoff upper-level low pressure systems this spring, which have slowly meandered the country instead of sweeping through.

That has allowed multi-day events to produce significant amounts of rain. In early April, a large area from Arkansas to Kentucky saw double-digit rainfall totals in a five-day period, enough for almost the entire spring rainfall by itself. Other events may not have been as significant this spring, but multiple rounds of rain falling at more than 2 inches at a time have soaked large sections of the South and Southeast, and all but eliminated drought in the Northeast. That has leaked north into the southern Midwest as well, and producers here have been waiting anxiously on the rain to give up for a few days so they can get their planting done, decide if they need to replant, or get other fieldwork accomplished. It's been a tough go for some folks.

For others, the spigots only turned on in May. Across the northern half of the Plains and Upper Midwest, rainfall had been spotty or come at only short bursts instead of the long-duration events seen farther south. But in May, several periods of heavy rain fell across the region, wiping out short-term rainfall deficits in many areas, and working on long-term deficits extending back to last summer as well.

Though warm for much of the spring, the upper-level lows brought in periods of much cooler weather, including the current system here at the end of May. This is in contrast to the overall hotter May that DTN was forecasting back in January, here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. That forecast was also calling for a much hotter and drier summer. And while uncertainty had been noted at that time, we are now in the range to have more faith in these models and forecasts, which overall have not shown much difference from back in January. That consistency leads to an overall confidence in this forecast, but it does not come without nuance.

First of all, June is not starting out in that hotter and drier pattern. The summer heat will be fleeting for a day or two at a time for the first half of the month. The weather pattern continues to favor more systems moving through the country. For those across the South, that means more unneeded rainfall. For those across the Plains and Midwest, it should help maintain or even build a bit of moisture.

But models are turning toward that persistently hotter and drier look for the second half of June. It is most likely to start across the far south, and Texas in particular, then work its way northward going into July. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest look most likely to maintain the overall chaotic conditions through the end of June, but end up in the same place, with a hotter and drier look for July that continues through August. The middle of the country, the Plains and western Midwest, are most likely to see these persistent conditions.

Though that portion of the forecast hasn't changed, that does not mean that there will not be any systems moving through that produce rainfall or bring temperatures down for periods. That could be critical for some areas of the region that unfortunately could not bank on the moisture sticking around into June, needing summer rainfall to ward away the impacts of drought as best it can. But these periods should be less frequent and widespread than normal during the summer, leading to longer hot and dry periods that could increase drought throughout the middle of the country.

Eastern areas of the country, which include the Gulf Coast and eastern Midwest, may not fully feel the impact of the hotter and drier summer forecast, as upper-level troughs may be more persistent, bringing in milder temperatures and more frequent rainfall. The forecast also increases monsoon rainfall across the Desert Southwest. That would not be enough to substantially decrease the drought; rainfall during the summer is very spotty anyway, but it would lessen the effects of drought.

And the event that can throw a wrench into any summer or fall forecast is a tropical system. Coming off a weak La Nina favors an active tropical season in the Atlantic Basin. Storms moving into the Gulf could move north through the middle of the country, bringing needed heavy rain to otherwise dry conditions. Though they are favored to be more frequent across the Atlantic Basin, it does not mean that they would be more likely in the Gulf of Mexico. But just one slow-moving hurricane and its remnants could bust the summer forecast.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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