Ag Weather Forum

The United States is in a pretty active stretch of weather as systems and fronts continue to bring rounds upon rounds of showers and thunderstorms east of the Rocky Mountains. That provides some challenges for producers out there trying to get in their fieldwork and planting. However, another consideration is soil temperature.

Typically, the old standard for corn and soybeans has been to wait until the soil temperature at 4-inch planting depth reaches 50 degrees Fahrenheit and the forecast remains positive that soil temperatures will not fall in the coming weeks. So far, that benchmark has been eclipsed by those in the southern half of the Corn Belt. Much of Kansas and Nebraska through Ohio and south have seen their 4-inch soil temperature reach 50 F with little risk of incoming cold snaps that would send temperatures plummeting and risking uneven emergence in their fields.

For those across the north, planting windows are usually tight and some chance it with a fair forecast. But when will those temperatures climb up? According to data from DTN, soil temperatures haven't eclipsed the 40-F mark for much of North Dakota and parts of northern Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan, but are closing in on that 50-degree mark in South Dakota and southern Minnesota, as well as southern Michigan. A couple weeks of near- or above-normal temperatures ought to do it. But are we going to see those temperatures?

In the short term, maybe not, as some cooler air is lingering across the Northern Plains through April 25. And Michigan may see a brief shot of lower temperatures during the weekend, April 26-27. However, these are short bursts of lower temperatures, and the medium- and longer-range forecasts are more favorable.

A cold front should swing through mid-late next week, with temperatures currently forecast to be slightly below normal from April 29-30 in the Northern Plains, and April 30 to May 2 in the Great Lakes. But those are also forecast to be short-lived bursts of cooler air. Meanwhile, the longer-range forecast in early May indicates a significant and long-lasting warmup in the Northern Plains. The Great Lakes are unlikely to be as warm as farther west, though conditions there, too, are not forecast to be all that chilly.

In other words, the longer-range forecast is favorable for seeing soil temperatures continuing to increase heading into the new month and that should favor fieldwork and planting progress across the entire region, not just across the north. As long as field conditions are not too wet, of course. That itself may cause delays more so than soil temperatures.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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