Ag Weather Forum

Wet Pattern for Western Midwest, Plains

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The overall weather pattern indicated by the United States and European jet stream models during the next six to 10 days will feature a trough in the western U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. This will be an active rainfall pattern along the boundary zone between the trough in the west and the ridge in the east. (Penn State Meteorology graphic)

Good-to-excellent corn ratings in the Midwest improved by 2 percentage points in Iowa and 1 point elsewhere, except in Minnesota where it was unchanged from last week.

Soybean ratings improved by 4 percentage points in Ohio and 2 points in Iowa and Nebraska. Ratings improved by 1 percentage point in Illinois and Indiana and were down by 1 point in Minnesota.

Corn ratings were down by 3 percentage points in North Dakota, possibly due to a hard freeze although 85% of the crop is mature. Soybean ratings were down by 1 percentage point.

Harvest progress for corn and soybeans is ahead of normal in the Midwest and Northern Plains. As is usually the case, producers are concentrating more on the soybean harvest at this time in the western Midwest and Northern Plains, as they are more negatively affected by bad weather.

The overall weather pattern during the next six to 10 days will feature a trough in the western U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. Disturbances will move out of the trough in the west moving up and over the ridge in the east. This will be an active rainfall pattern along the boundary zone between the trough in the west and the ridge in the east.

The western Midwest and Plains are expected to be the focus of the greatest rainfall with this pattern. Temperatures will be lower the further to the north and west you are, and warmer to the south and east.

This pattern will disrupt and delay the harvest in the western Midwest and Northern Plains. The harvest will be more favorable in the eastern Midwest. This will be a very favorable weather pattern for planting and developing winter wheat in the Southern Plains with near to above normal rainfall expected during the next seven days.

No major concerns at this time in Brazil. Planting got off to an early start, especially in Parana due to early season rains. Rainfall will average near to below normal in the Mato Grosso area during the next seven days that could limit soybean planting to a degree. Near- to above-normal rainfall in Parana will favor planting with the expectation of some early harvesting towards the beginning of the new year.

Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial pacific for the month of September was plus 0.4. This is up from a zero departure in August, but is still enso neutral.

Michael Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

(ES/)

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