Ag Weather Forum

More Global Warming In August

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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Following are highlights from the NOAA August world climate report. A new record for world--or, global--warmth was recorded. The link to the full report, including graphics, is at the conclusion of this summary.--Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for August 2015 was 0.88 degrees Celsius (1.58 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th century average of 15.6 deg C (60.1 deg F) and the highest August in the 136-year record. This value surpassed the previous record set in 2014 by 0.09 deg C (0.16 deg F). Most of the world's surface was substantially warmer than average and, in some locations, record warm during August 2015, contributing to the monthly global record warmth. This was the sixth month in 2015 that has broken its monthly temperature record (February, March, May, June, July, and August). August 2015 tied with January 2007 as the third warmest monthly departure from average for any of the 1,628 months since records began in January 1880, behind February 2015 and March 2015 (+0.89 deg C / +1.60 deg F). Five of the ten largest monthly temperature departures from average occurred in 2015.

The average global land surface temperature for August 2015 was 1.14 deg C (2.05 deg F) above the 20th century average—the highest August value in the 1880–2015 record, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by +0.13 deg C (+0.23 deg F). According to the Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles map, much-warmer-than-average conditions were present across much of the western contiguous U.S., Mexico, South America, Africa, Europe, and parts of eastern Asia. According to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map, record warmth was observed across South America and parts of Europe, Asia, and Africa. South America, Europe, and Africa experienced their warmest August average temperature since 1910. Near- to much-cooler-than-average conditions were present across Alaska, western Canada, the central contiguous U.S., and western and southeastern Asia.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

The August 2015 temperature departure for Germany was 2.8 deg C (5.0 deg F) above the 1981–2010 average—resulting in the second warmest August since 1901, according to Germany's Met Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst).

Much warmer-than-average conditions dominated across much of Argentina during August 2015, with many locations experiencing record temperatures—according to Argentina's Met Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de Argentina). Some locations recorded temperatures as high as 40 deg C (104 deg F).

According to the UK Met Office, the United Kingdom experienced cooler-than-average conditions during August 2015, resulting in a national mean temperature of 14.7 deg C (58.5 deg F), which is 0.2 deg C (0.36 deg F) below the 1981–2010 average.

Spain experienced a warmer-than-average August, with an average temperature of 24.5 deg C (76.1 deg F)—which is 0.5 deg C (0.9 deg F) above the 1981–2010 average.

The average temperature for Denmark for August 2015 was 17.4 deg C (63.3 deg F), which is 1.7 deg C (3.1 deg F) above the 1961–1990 average and the warmest August since 2009, according to Denmark's Met Service (DMI).

Australia, as a whole, had a warmer-than-average August at 0.61 deg C (1.10 deg F) above the 1961–1990 average. However, Tasmania had below-average conditions, resulting in the third lowest temperature departure (-1.27 deg C / -2.29 deg F) since national records began in 1910, according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

Across the oceans, the August 2015 globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.78 deg C (1.40 deg F) above the 20th century average—the highest temperature for any month in the 1880–2015 record and surpassing the previous record set in July 2015 by 0.04 deg C (0.07 deg F). According to the Land & Ocean Percentiles map, large portions of the seven seas (where temperature records are available) recorded much-warmer-than-average temperatures, with much of the eastern and equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and parts of the Atlantic experiencing record warmth.

El Nino conditions were present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during August 2015. According to analysis by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, sea surface temperatures during August were near or greater than 2 deg C (3.6 deg F) above the 1981–2010 average in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Nino will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16.

Full report: https://goo.gl/…

(CZ)

Comments

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Bryce Anderson
10/15/2015 | 1:28 PM CDT
Here is the American Meteorological Society statement on climate change as well: https://goo.gl/MAApXO
Paul Beiser
10/8/2015 | 3:12 PM CDT
http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/2/
Paul Beiser
10/7/2015 | 11:25 AM CDT
I cant wait for the next mini ice age. liberal minds will explode.
Bonnie Dukowitz
9/23/2015 | 7:32 AM CDT
Amazing! Thanks for the info. To think in that time in history, most people never got more than 25 miles from home.
Bryce Anderson
9/22/2015 | 1:49 PM CDT
There was a large amount of very careful record-keeping that went on 136 years ago. In checking with some contacts in the climate science field, I found out that there were a surprising number of thermometers around the area in the late 1800s, mostly at forts and military outposts. The Signal Corps provided weather forecasts back then and they also had a small network of observers. There was an effort back in the 1990s to digitize/key in much of this historical paper data and scan the paper forms into the official NOAA archvies. Some folks have gone through old surgeon's records, farmer journals, and any other weather records from newspapers and so on from all over to re-create weather records from those days. One classic example of this is Thomas Jefferson's journals at Monticello. A lot of other "anecdotal" records have been documented now, especially for significant events like blizzards and droughts. The statistical relationships from those stations with very long records (that are still in operation today) can be used and compare to more recent shorter-record stations to re-create the finer scale gridded weather and climate data for the late 1800s/early 1900s.
Bonnie Dukowitz
9/21/2015 | 9:19 PM CDT
Just a question, Bryce. With todays technology, how can comparisons of 136 years be accurate? Just not too many rockets or thermometers in 1879.
Bryce Anderson
9/21/2015 | 12:38 PM CDT
The first paragraph suffices for the use of "global" regarding the warming temperature trend.
Curt Zingula
9/21/2015 | 7:00 AM CDT
Websters defines 'global' as "worldwide". By Bryce's report, we will have to stop using 'global' warming.
Jay Mcginnis
9/21/2015 | 6:22 AM CDT
Maybe you need to adjust your reporting terms Bryce, headlines such as "Naturally occurring, normal temperature rises in August"? Have your article pre approved by Liberty University and Sean Hannity before you present it here? Thermometer readings are very political these days, are you sure weathermen are reading them correctly, not turning them upside down or smoking too close to them? There are sooo many reasons why your figures are wrong, maybe HIllary's emails will disclose the reason, the paragraph right after she confesses to masterminding Benghazi! But till then I hope your readers realize you don't push ending their driving monster PU trucks or changing their lifestyles to help the environment, besides the major effects will be long after we are gone! Bryce is reporting "just the facts mam" !!!
Bryce Anderson
9/21/2015 | 5:54 AM CDT
There is more news on this subject. Research done at Stanford University shows that the promoted slowing down of global warming between 1998 and 2013 never happened. http://goo.gl/czI26c
BD, NE LA.
9/20/2015 | 6:51 AM CDT
So, we are back to calling it "Global Warming"? It must be nice to be able to adjust our words to "fit" the present narrative.
tom vogel
9/19/2015 | 9:33 PM CDT
Bryce: These numbers were "pre-cooked" long before they were released. This is one of the biggest hoaxes in world history.