Ag Weather Forum

The India Meteorological Department has issued its update as it concerns the forecast for the 2015 rainy season, June through August, for the region. They continue to call for below normal rainfall during the Monsoon season. This is due mainly to the developing El Nino in the Pacific, among other factors. The most significant departures from normal look to be over northwest India. This is typical for seasons when rainfall is deficient. This usually results from the Monsoon reaching the area late and then departing early. Typically the Monsoon rains become established over northwest India and Pakistan during the last part of June or early in July. Until that time the area can expect to see hot temperatures and only occasional periods of pre monsoon type showers.

The weather patterns during May featured extreme heat waves over many areas of India with the southeast areas the hardest hit. Normally the Indian subcontinent heats up during May as the ridge builds prior to the onset of the southwest Monsoon. The rains develop as the ridge shifts north and then northwest with time. Rain arrives first in southern and northeast India and then the rain advances towards the northwest. Reports suggest that the extreme heat came on rather suddenly and has stayed longer than is normal. As of June 3^rd the leading edge of the Monsoon trough was still located over southern Sri Lanka.

Crops impacted from a poor or failed Monsoon would include soybeans, rice, cotton and groundnuts among others. India also has winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops grown in the north and northwest but these will not be planted until well after the rainy season ends late this year.

The current satellite pictures show increasing shower and rain activity over the northwest Indian Ocean and the southern Arabian Sea. We note decreasing clouds and rain through the northeast Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal at this time. There is a minor upper level trough in the northwest that is causing a few light pre monsoon showers but little is occurring elsewhere in the region. The computer models are forecasting the development of a disturbance in the southern Arabian Sea within the next 1-3 days. This system then is shown moving northward during the weekend and early next week. This is highly unusual for the early Monsoon and is considered suspect. However, if it were to occur this could cause a few problems for the Monsoon development. First it may help move the leading edge of the Monsoon northward which would be a favorable turn of events. However, systems such as these have a habit of pulling much of the available moisture away from the south India region. This could cause a break in the action and extend the dryness and heat concerns even longer than currently indicated. In either case, it will be a system worth watching over the next few days.

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