Ag Weather Forum

The latest crop reports are out and show no major surprises. Corn planting in the southern U.S. remains behind normal but it is starting to catch up, as we are beginning to see a seasonal trend to more warm days and less-frequent rainfall. We would expect producers will continue to make further progress taking advantage of the strengthening April sun to dry out fields in between rain events.

The center of fieldwork and planting delays is now beginning to shift northward into the Midwest. We can expect to see little work being done during the next 7 days due to frequent episodes of rain, some of which will be heavy. Southern and eastern areas are already wet and will remain so. Some areas of the northwest have actually been on the dry side with producers happy to see more moisture. However, given time this could become too much of a good thing and could ultimately end up slowing fieldwork and planting during the latter half of the month. There are no indications at this time of any dryness issues developing in the Midwest with the character of the pattern leaning much more to the wet side rather than the dry side.

The area of interest as it concerns dryness is the southern Plains winter wheat region. This region has adequate to short topsoil moisture. As the crop is still only in the vegetative to jointing stages of development, moisture needs have been limited. However, as the crop advances towards heading, moisture needs will increase. It is a tough call to make at this time as to whether these areas will pick up some significant moisture in the coming weeks. The wet weather pattern will not be far off to the east. It will all depend on the speed of movement of systems coming in from the west. If they move too fast, Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain off to the east. If these systems move through at a slower speed, Gulf moisture will be able to find its way back further to the west into the main growing areas. Along with dryness concerns, some of the northwest areas have experienced winterkill which will impact production.

The northern Plains had a snow drought this past winter, leading to little concern over spring flooding. Producers should enjoy the drier fields they are experiencing now and take care of some pre-planting fieldwork, because it is likely the seasonal northward shift in the wet weather pattern in the central US will bring more rainfall to the region later in the spring.

Mike

(ES/SK/AG)

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