Ag Weather Forum

The Brazil ag ministry, abbreviated CONAB, issued its latest projection for the 2015 Brazil soybean crop this week, with a 95.9 million metric ton number. That is obviously a huge crop--amounting to more than 3.5 billion bushels. It's not quite equal to the U.S. total of 3.8 billion bushels or so (depending on what we see in Monday's report) but it's certainly in shouting distance.

However, the way the weather pattern is acting, that 95.9 mmt projection could quite possibly be the high-water mark for this year's Brazil crop. The general trends have been favorable, but the past couple weeks have not been quite as crop-friendly, even in the largest soybean-growing state, Mato Grosso. I asked some farmer acquaintances in Mato Grosso about what was happening, and got some details that don't exactly sound like bodacious crop weather. They are distilled below:

Rainfall this week was very welcome; in some parts of Mato Grosso, farmers are complaining about 11 to 12 days without any rain. There are quite a few parts of Mato Grosso where soils are sandy, and for blooming and pod-filling beans, drier conditions are not good.

Some of the large-scale farms have started harvesting. These operations plant their beans very early (probably in mid-September), which is a high-risk practice considering that the rainy season in some years has not started by then (a situation that occurred for this crop year). The big operations will follow their soybeans with a second crop of either corn or cotton.

Yields from the early harvest are quite variable, depending on whether rain fell during September-October. There are good yields of around 45 to 50 bushels per acre, but there are also much lower yield reports in the 30-35 bushel per acre range. Yields under irrigation will likely run in the range of 50-55 bushels per acre. But in similar areas without irrigation, the yield will likely run around 37 to 41 bushels per acre, about 15 bushels per acre less than irrigated soybeans.

Considering that almost every farm in Mato Grosso has some sandy ground, and needs consistent rains for soil moisture (which has not occurred this season), it's hard to believe that the state will have the same yield as last year.

Another risk factor that is still a part of the scene is soybean rust. Because of the September-October dryness, the Mato Grosso planting season was late. That means more risk related to soybean rust control. It has not appeared so far, but the threat is still there.

Last year, the total production for Mato Grosso was 26.3 million metric tons or 966.26 million bushels. Area harvested was 8.4 million hectares or 21 million acres. The yield was 3,130 kilograms per hectare or 47.0 bushels per acre. But, considering the iffy-ness of rainfall we have seen, that 2014 number may not be duplicated.

We all know that Mato Grosso is the big kahuna of Brazil's row crop agriculture. And if the big producer has an issue, that will have a notable ripple across the board.

And, that's why I think it is possible that we have seen the top number for Brazil's soybean crop this year.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES)

© Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.