Ag Weather Forum

Monday morning radar focuses on some lingering rain showers over the eastern Great Lakes. This is the last round of activity for the Corn Belt after the blustery and severe weather events of the past weekend. Harvest resumption will be variable however following rain, strong winds and very cool temperatures.

The seven-day precipitation roundup shows that several areas of the Corn Belt had moderate to heavy precipitation last week. Heaviest was in the Ohio Valley with 3-5 inches in southern Indiana, western Kentucky and southern Illinois. That's where delays in harvest and field work will be most extensive. Nebraska--Minnesota--also had some heavy precipitation. And in western South Dakota--a large area of measured-as-liquid 2-3 plus inch precipitation area was mostly in the form of record breaking snowfall of 19 inches just on Friday October 4, with a 3-day total of 23.1 inches--a record for the most snow in October. Livestock losses could be huge in the area hit by that kind of snow.

Also in eastern Nebraska, a tornado of EF-4 intensity hit the community of Wayne, in northeastern Nebraska and caused millions of dollars in damage. And an estimated EF-2 tornado also hit about 20 miles southeast of Lincoln, Nebraska.

5-day forecast precipitation offers more moisture in the northwest Plains with more than an inch in western North Dakota--light elsewhere especially in the eastern Midwest. Shower chances in the southwest Plains are welcome because of some increased moisture for winter wheat and fall pasture.

Forecast highs the next five days have some very mild conditions in the western Corn Belt which will help with drying after last week's rain. But the eastern Midwest will be slower due to limited warm-up this week--temperatures basically near to even a bit below normal.

The jet stream forecast for the period ending Thursday October 17th--some model disagreement--our lean to the Euro model with a trough west-ridge east pattern. Wetter and cooler in the Midwest--especially the northwestern areas. Eastern Midwest has a better scenario for drier conditions and harvest progress.

In South America--there is hardly any rain in store for central Brazil through Wednesday which brings concern regarding soil moisture supplies. A few showers in Argentina will bring limited soil

And Ukraine looks mostly dry this week--helping the fall harvest and wheat planting. However--wheat acreage is likely already reduced because of wet conditions this season.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(CZ/ES)