Ag Weather Forum

Summer Weather Pattern Emerging

By Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

We have been talking since the spring about the development of high pressure (blocking) in the higher latitudes (Alaska, Canada and Greenland) and its impact on the weather pattern in the central US (cool and wet).

Now on the verge of midsummer we can add a few comments on the expected weather pattern during the month of July. First-- there are no indications of an end to the blocking pattern in Canada. This will continue to allow the jet stream to move southward into the US, at times promoting episodes of cool, wet weather. Second--there are now clear indications that the summer subtropical ridge that promotes hot and dry weather will mostly be confined to the western US. In general when we see a ridge set up in this region during the summer, it tends to persist with no signifcant penetration into the Midwest. This is even more likely to occur in a summer with high latitude blocking forcing the jet stream further south than normal.

It appears that as we enter the month of July the greatest concern with crops in the Midwest will be a lack of sunshine caused by too much rain, the impact of this rainfall washing nutrients out of the soils and a lack of growing degrees days.

Mike

(CZ/ES)

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Bryce Anderson 6/26/2013 | 8:03 AM CDT
Bryce here again--regarding Northeast Iowa, there are some reminders about 1993 especially this week when it was noted that some corn planting still remained to be done--the first time since '93 that corn planting was lagging this late in the season. There is not the continuous Pacific Ocean inflow that was in effect in 1993, which suggests that we are not in line for a repeat of that extremely wet summer.
WARREN HARDY 6/26/2013 | 6:26 AM CDT
Eastern NC has been cool and wet for all of June.Our corn is pollinating now. I am concerned about lack of sunshine. Do you see this trend continuing?
Wayne Fredericks 6/26/2013 | 6:17 AM CDT
Mike,

I farm in NE Iowa where is has been very wet this spring and we will have a lot of acres go unplanted. Do you see a repeat of 1993 for our area?
Bryce Anderson 6/25/2013 | 5:40 AM CDT
Bryce here--It appears that the Tri-State area of southwestern Nebraska, northwestern Kansas, and northeastern Colorado will have more influence from the southwestern U.S. high than any troughing from the north. That means limited rainfall during the next month. It looks like any real appreciable chance at moisture will not be until some monsoon-type precipitation pattern develops later in July through early August.
Unknown 6/24/2013 | 6:58 PM CDT
Mike,

How will this affect the weather in extreme southwestern Nebraska, Northwestern Kansas? Around Benkelman, McCook, Ne. and Bird City, Ks.?