Ag Policy Blog

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday said details of an aid package for farmers are still being worked on, but an announcement will likely come within the next two weeks.

The American Farm Bureau Federation also released an analysis highlighting the need for such aid.

Rollins spoke early Monday on CNBC's Squawk Box where she blamed inflation farmers are facing on the Biden administration and praised President Trump's focus on "affordability," saying "Americans will see real relief very, very soon."

The secretary also was asked about an aid package, which is expected to cost roughly $12 billion. Throughout the government shutdown, Rollins and others in the administration said the aid package was prepped and ready to go as soon as the shutdown was over.

"Yes, we are looking at the aid right now," she said. "We have always said it is to solve for or mitigate anything under these new trade negotiations. Everyday that changes, and that's what we're working on. So, we'll have an announcement probably in the next week or two on what that's going to look like," Rollins told CNBC.

Asked about China's purchases of U.S. soybeans, Rollins said China has purchased nearly 1.5 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S., though the early trade announcements were closer to 332,000 metric tons. "They've already put in a purchase order. We've already started shipping soybeans their way."

Although Rollins also said China has begun buying soybeans from the U.S., those purchases have not shown up on USDA's latest export sales reports, which are several weeks behind because of the government shutdown.

Rollins added, "We're selling a lot more soybeans right now than we were a couple of months ago."

Administration officials have said repeatedly since Trump returned from South Korea at the beginning of November that China agreed to buy 12 mmt of soybeans this year and 25 mmt a year over the next three years.

"We have every indication they will continue to buy soybeans, sorghum, etc.," Rollins said, but added the new trade agreements would expand soybean sales to trading partners such as Japan and the EU. "We can't just be so reliant as Americans producing American products on one country -- a foreign adversary," she said, referring to China.

Rollins added, "I know they are inking the deal this week or next week. Again, every sign is their commitment remains true that they will indeed buy or purchase 12 mmt or put the order in. It doesn't mean will move 12 mmt by the end of December, but it does mean that those purchase orders will come."

The secretary also highlighted the number of trade deals reached under the Trump administration that would diversify agricultural exports in the coming years.

"We now have dozens of new trade deals with Indonesia, Australia, Japan, the EU, England, it's just remarkable," Rollins said.

As Rollins suggests an aid package could be announced as early as next week, the American Farm Bureau Federations' economic team on Monday also released an analysis headlined, "Farmers Urgently Need Economic Assistance."

The AFBF report indicates farmers growing just nine major crops nationally combined would lose more than $34 billion for the 2025 crop year.

AFBF's key takeaways include:

-Farm financial stress is severe and persistent with crops under breakeven margins and Chapter 12 bankruptcies are increasing.

-Trade losses have compounded economic pressures as farmers have experienced multi-billion-dollar export declines in some of the country's largest trading markets. "Trade frameworks have been announced, but increased export volumes have yet to materialize and cash prices remain at or below levels seen in early 2025."

-Without action, long-term viability is at risk. Additional financial support is needed to offset those trade losses and provide a bridge until an improved safety net from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act goes into effect.

Overall, AFBF shows costs of production at $179 billion while crop revenue is coming in at $144 billion. Cotton, rice peanuts, sorghum, corn, wheat and soybeans are all showing negative margins for three years in a row.

"Economic aid is urgently needed in the countryside, as most farmers will begin planting their next crop early in 2026, with some crops already planted, and must have their financial commitments in place as they secure lines of credit. Many lenders will not count federal support on a balance sheet until it is certain, heightening the urgency, especially given that $12 billion is only a portion of the economic losses farmers have already accumulated," wrote John Newton, AFBF's vice president of public policy and economic analysis.

See AFBF report: https://www.fb.org/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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