Ag Policy Blog

USDA's Latest Forecast on 2018 Agricultural Exports

Chris Clayton
By  Chris Clayton , DTN Ag Policy Editor
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Photo courtesy of Midwest Shippers Association

Agricultural exports are projected at $140 billion in Fiscal Year 2018, down $500 million from agricultural exports in 2017, according to a forecast released Thursday by USDA.

Still, the trade balance show grow to a surplus of $23 billion in 2018, up from $21.3 billion in 2017, as agricultural imports are projected to decline. Imports are pegged at $117 billion in FY 2018 , a $2.1 billion decline from 2017.

USDA projects China will recapture the top market for U.S. agricultural exports at $22.6 billion while Canada will be No. 2 at $22.1 billion and Mexico will be the No.3 market at $19.2 billion. Exports to the European Union are projected at $11.8 billion and Japan rounds out the top five markets with $11.1 billion in forecast sales.

Grain and feed exports for Fiscal Year 2018 are projected at a combined $29.4 billion, down $950 million from 2017. The November forecast of $29.4 billion is $1 billion higher than USDA projected in August.

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Corn exports are projected at $8.5 billion, while other feeds and fodders are projected at $7.5 billion in exports, driven by $500 million in expected higher demand for distiller's dried grains with solubles. Wheat exports are pegged at $6.3 billion in value.

Soybean exports for FY 2018 are pegged at $24.1 billion, up just slightly from $23.97 billion in 2017. Soymeal will add another $4 billion in exports.

In the livestock, poultry and dairy sectors, FY 2018 exports are projected at $29.7 billion, up from $28.87 billion in 2017. Beef and veal exports are pegged to reach $6.3 billion, while pork exports will hit $5.2 billion, both slightly higher than 2017 levels. Poultry product will also export $5 billion in value.

Exports in horticultural products, including fruits, vegetables and tree nuts, will reach $34.5 billion in FY 2018, up from $33.9 billion in 2017.

Looking at agricultural imports, USDA projects $23.6 billion from Mexico and $22.4 billion from Canada. The European Union is projected to export $21.2 billion in agricultural goods to the U.S. as well.

The full report: https://www.ers.usda.gov/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ChrisClaytonDTN

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