Technically Speaking

MARCH 2026 CORN FUTURES:

March corn futures have been consolidating just above the 100-day moving average and an uptrend line near $4.35, with a fall and close below that likely to trigger another wave lower. March corn has already fallen 20 cents from the recent high set just seven days ago. On the opposite side of the argument for or against the above assumption is the very bullish corn shipment pace, with inspections as of Nov. 20 far above the USDA estimate. Corn shipments at 688 million bushels (mb) now sit 72% higher than a year ago.

On the other side of the coin, stiffer competition is likely ahead, as Ukraine and Argentina are very competitive, and both Argentina and Brazil are forecast to produce record-large corn crops should weather continue to be favorable. While Argentine FOB corn prices are close to even money with U.S. Gulf offers, Argentine wheat -- currently being harvested -- has fallen to a discount to corn on an FOB basis. Adding to potential corn pressure is the plunging crude oil market, which on Nov. 25 is approaching $57 per barrel. Also, the fact that corn is 96% harvested in the U.S. is likely to add to already plentiful U.S. and world corn supplies, producing a headwind.

Technically, key upon the $4.35 area. So far, corn has been able to find support there. As export sales releases are playing catch-up after the 43-day-long government shutdown, all we have to go on is weekly inspections, and that pace is very bullish. We shall see how this shakes out.

JANUARY BEAN OIL:

After reaching the recent high just five days ago, January beans have fallen along with the plunging crude oil and other veg oil markets. Adding to pressure has been the vague biofuels policy so far from the current administration and the record U.S. soybean crush as more plants are coming online.

Technically, since Sept. 18, January bean oil has moved in a sideways and narrow 2- to 3-cent range, spanning from 52 cents to 49 cents. A breakout from either side of that range will likely signal the next move in oil. In the past three trading days, January oil has recovered from trading under 50 cents, and that is a positive sign, signaling sellers have "run out of bullets," so to speak. The market has to rally less than 2 1/2 cents to transition to a more bullish posture.

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Comments above are for educational purposes only and are not meant as specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of commodities, futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone.

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Mark your calendars for the next DTN Ag Summit "Planning for Success" on Dec. 3-4 from 9:30 to 11:30 a.m.

https://dtn.link/…

Cyclical challenges in the grain market and shifting power dynamics in the cattle complex highlight the necessity of preparedness, not only to mitigate risk but also to maximize opportunities.

In our capstone DTN Ag Summit event, we'll hear directly from young farmers and ranchers about the approaches they're taking to set their businesses up for success and from DTN experts with critical outlooks to help you craft your game plan for 2026.

Featured DTN speakers include Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery, Ag Meteorologist John Baranick and Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart for respective outlooks on the grain market, weather and cattle. Senior Editor Dan Miller welcomes a panel of DTN's America's Best Young Farmers and Ranchers award recipients -- Lucas and Dana Dull and Lillie and Brian Beringer-Crock -- to discuss new avenues of business and pivots each have made to welcome more agritourism to their operations.

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Dana Mantini can be reached at Dana.Mantini@DTN.com

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