December corn fell 22 cents last week, 19 1/2 cents of the loss coming on Friday after USDA raised the corn planting estimate from 89.8 million acres to 91.7 million acres. It was a bizarre move, to say the least, which has thrown a confusing wrench into the market. In real terms, corn plantings are almost certainly below 91.7 million acres, but Friday's report gave us no help in understanding how far below, and now we have to wait until August for another survey. Technically speaking, last week's sharp fall from five-year highs turned the weekly stochastic lower and is likely to serve as resistance moving forward.
While corn prices were taking it on the chin Friday, November soybeans closed up 10 3/4 cents and trimmed its loss for the week to 4 1/2 cents. USDA dropped its estimate of soybean plantings from 84.6 million acres to a much lower-than-expected 80.0 million acres. With little explanation from USDA as to how the numbers were arrived at when only 77% of the crop was planted at the time of the survey, the market has little reason to be confident about Friday's estimate. Technically speaking, November soybeans have been trending higher since the low of May 13 and are holding above their 100-day average. The 2019 high of $9.69 1/4 will likely serve as resistance while prices wait for the next planting estimate in August.
September Chicago wheat:
Like December corn, September Chicago wheat also fell 19 1/2 cents Friday, finishing the week with a 3 1/2-cent loss. Chicago wheat has been the most bullish-behaving wheat price in 2019, and until last week, was challenging its highs of the year. Technically speaking, last week's lower close came close to turning the weekly stochastic down and the high of the week at $5.57 1/4 is a likely candidate for resistance with world wheat fundamentals leaning heavily bearish.
Comments above are for educational purposes and are not meant to be specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of grains and grain futures involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.
Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com
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