Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.63, down 18 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. As discussed the last few weeks, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned down after the NCI.X fell back from its test of technical resistance at $3.84. Weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, confirming the move to a downtrend. Initial support is pegged at $3.47, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from the $2.81 low through the high of $3.80. However, given the continued bearish carry in futures spreads the NCI.X could test the 50% retracement level of $3.31.

Corn (Old-crop): The March contract closed 19.00cts lower at $3.95 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down following the establishment of both a bearish key reversal on its weekly chart and a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is near $3.88 1/4, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.30 1/2 through last week's high of $4.17. A move below this support, and the now 4-week low of $3.87 1/2, would indicate an extended selloff to between $3.73 3/4 and $3.59 1/4.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 19.50cts lower at $4.19 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is now down. Similar to the old-crop March contract, new-crop December posted a bearish key reversal last week while its weekly stochastics established a confirming bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is near $4.15 1/2, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.64 1/4 through last week's high of $4.40. However, a test of the $4.03 1/2 to $3.91 1/2 range (50% to 67% retracements) is likely.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.53, down 44 cents for the week. Weekly stochastics remain bullish as the NSI.X tests support at $9.56, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the uptrend from $8.50 through the high of $10.08 posted the week of November 10. Since then the NSI.X has been consolidating, with its initial target price still sitting at $10.66. A lack of support from both futures spreads (neutral) and national average basis has held the cash market's uptrend in check.

Soybeans (old-crop): The March contract closed 46.50cts lower at $10.07 1/2 last week. Weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover below the overbought level of 80% in conjunction with a bearish outside week by the futures contract. Both would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with support at $10.05 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the uptrend from $9.20 3/4 through the high of $10.89 3/4. Next support is pegged at the 61.8% retracement level near $9.85 1/4.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 35.75cts lower at $9.93 1/4. A bearish outside week by the futures market established a bearish crossover below the oversold level of 80%, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways. Next support is near $9.23, the 50% retracement level of the uptrend from $9.27 1/2 through the high of $10.56 3/4. The 67% retracement level is near $9.70 1/2.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.52, down 25 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. A close at last week's low sets up a potential island-top formation on its weekly chart if the SR.X gaps lower this week. Technically, support is pegged at $5.48, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the uptrend from $4.25 through the recent high of $6.23. This price is also the mid-point between the bottom of a bullish gap at $5.44 (week of November 24) and this past week's low/close ($5.52).

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The March Chicago contract closed 29.50cts lower at $5.81 1/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways as the futures contract tests support near $5.79 1/2. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $4.80 through the high of $6.77. Given that the weak carry in the March to May futures spread continues to reflect a neutral to bullish commercial outlook, this price support should hold. If so, the March contract could look at gaining back 2/3 to nearly all of its most recent sell-off, pulling weekly stochastics back above the oversold level of 80% and setting the stage for a more conclusive bearish turn.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 27.50cts lower at $5.89 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways as the July contract tests support at $5.81 1/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the uptrend from $4.96 1/2 through the high of $6.66. A neutral level of carry in the July to September futures spread indicates this support should hold, leading to a rally that would eventually take weekly stochastics back above the overbought level of 80%.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom