Technically Speaking

USDA Report Quick Thoughts

Soybeans rallied to double-digit gains shortly before the release of the report. Corn was dow 4 to 5 cents.

Harvested acres for both corn and soybeans came in lower than expected as USDA accounted for more of the abandonment.

Soybean export demand jumped to 1.45 bb in 2013-2014 from the September estimate of 1.37 bb. This helped offset an increase in production due to higher yield.

Still, USDA refuses to acknowledged it is likely 30 mb off on its 2012-2013 ending stocks number. Just think if this were accurate, 2013-2014 ending stocks would be back near 140 mb.

Corn ending stocks came in below 2.0 bb at 1.9 bb. This is below the low end of the range and though still bearish, could be viewed as bullish.

Harvested corn acres fell far more than expected. The Nov report pegged it at 87.2 ma as compared to the September estimate of 89.1 ma and the pre-report average of 88.1 ma.

Domestic corn demand increased by 275 mb made up of a 175 mb more exports and 100 mb more feed demand.

Wheat ending stocks came in larger than expected.

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Bottom line: Beans still bullish, corn not as bearish as expected, wheat bearish.

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Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

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Comments

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james earl
11/8/2013 | 3:03 PM CST
Perhaps you could think of a way to retract your pre report editorial on the death walk to the trap door. There really wasn't any need to comment. Perhaps you were bored.