South America Calling

It has not been perfect everywhere -- there are still some areas around central Brazil trying to recover from an awfully dry October -- but the weather situation over much of South America has been rather benign to favorable for planting and early crop growth. That may change after the next week, however.

October was a terrible month for central Brazil. This area of the country typically sees wet season monsoon showers dotting the region every day with little interruption. But this year, rain has come mostly in waves from passing fronts. The lack of rainfall has left some areas very concerned and with a need to replant -- soybeans sprouted with the frontal rainfall only to go dry and wither. Some producers may decide to replant based on how bad it has been.

Southern Brazil and Argentina have generally seen opposite weather conditions. Those fronts moving through have been very frequent and contained waves of heavy rain that have been consistent every few days in September and October. Now getting into November, and the start of soybean planting in Argentina, soil moisture is well-stocked throughout the region. Early-season weather is setup nicely for all crops and winter wheat is being harvested with generally above-normal production.

This next week or so of weather continues to be favorable for most of the continent. A front has stalled in central and northern Brazil, which continues to produce showers. A front is moving north out of Argentina into southern Brazil, where it already produced good rainfall, and will fill in the rest of Brazil over the course of the weekend.

The front is forecast to stall in central Brazil again where showers continue next week. Another front will move north through Argentina on Tuesday and Wednesday, again feeding good rainfall through that country into southern Brazil for the middle of next week. This front may stall a bit farther south in central Brazil next week, but producers in Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo would prefer it that way.

Total rainfall will be variable of course, but all producers from southern Argentina through northern Brazil will see widespread chances for heavy rain. Northern Argentina through all of Brazil will be in line for 25-50 millimeters (1-2 inches) with areas of locally heavier rainfall. Southern and central Argentina may only be able to produce another 30 millimeters (1.2 inches) or less, but that is still good rainfall from one front moving through.

That last front may be the start of a new weather pattern for the continent though. Models are insistent that while fronts may still move through Argentina into southern Brazil, they will be drier for the second half of November. Temperatures are generally forecast to be higher as well. In contrast, heavier rain is forecast to fall in central Brazil. This has been forecast for a while now by long-range models, and I talked about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. As mentioned there, the warmer and drier forecast is typical for Argentina and southern Brazil during La Nina, which is currently in place across the central Atlantic. Should this come to fruition, prospects may turn from good to poor across Argentina and southern Brazil, but may flip from questionable to good in central Brazil.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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