South America Calling

For the last couple of months, showers have been passing through Argentina, but they have been largely below normal. Data from DTN suggests over the last 30 days, there isn't a spot in the country that has seen above-normal rainfall. And over the last 60 days, it has only been a few spots, though they are important ones in the high-production states of Cordoba and southern Buenos Aires.

Even with the below-normal amounts, the rains have been very timely. A couple of fronts each week, with interspersed isolated showers, have come at just the right time to just the right spots on the whole across the country. Like an atmospheric game of "whack-a-mole," every time an area of the country goes a couple of weeks without rain, they get a good dousing to keep concerns low.

But after a couple of months of this game, luck is starting to run out. Soil moisture has been very tentative throughout this period, on the verge of just enough and too little for a long time. While crops had been doing ok -- but not great -- over this period, that is starting to turn as it got drier in late December. The Rosario Grain Exchange explains more here, https://www.bcr.com.ar/…, but in general suggests the same -- that moisture reserves are critical, especially in the northern portion of Buenos Aires.

"Thus, water reserves in the soil at the first meter of depth (considering the consumption of a permanent pasture) currently range from scarce to drought in half of the core region, and if the area with regular water content is added, the figure rises to 80%, with the northeast of Buenos Aires being the driest sector," according to the exchange.

With the forecast for the first two weeks of January looking awfully dry and temperatures rising above normal next week, the situation is likely to get worse. Approximately 10% to 15% of the corn and soybean crops had yet to be planted by the end of the year. But early planted corn, which is in the pollinating and grain-fill stages, is starting to show signs of stress from the lack of rain in December. More of the late-planted corn and the soybean crop, both of which started to be planted in late November or early December, are starting to need rain as well. And the remaining planting also has been delayed due to a lack of rain and soil moisture.

Only spotty rain showers are forecast through Jan. 15 and amounts are likely to be less than 10 millimeters (0.39 inches) through that date. Only a couple of lucky spots may see more. Northern Argentina is forecast to receive less coverage than the south -- a concerning sign for the large majority of the area that plants its corn crop in September and October and are going through reproduction.

But the situation is not dire just yet. There is some indication in the models that rains may be a little more frequent during the second half of January, perhaps more of the "whack-a-mole" type of showers we saw in December, but good enough to quash concerns or extend them into February. Still, some production losses are possible in the country.

That extends a bit into southern Brazil as well. Soil moisture is not as dire there as in Argentina, but they have the same dryness concerns for full-season corn in the state of Rio Grande do Sul that is in its reproductive stages, and for first-crop soybeans that are filling pods in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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