South America Calling

As I mentioned last week, wet season showers are starting up in central Brazil this week. https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also mentioned in that piece was that models had rainfall increasing starting Oct. 1. But all this week, models have been pushing back the start time of those more consistent showers. It seems that with every new long-range model run, the consistent showers, which should start coming in early October, keep getting pushed back later and later into October.

The latest run of the European ECMWF weekly model has showers increasing across the state of Mato Grosso Oct. 7-9, but not getting into the states of Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, or Minas Gerais until much later, around Oct. 12-17. That would be when each state records its first 50 millimeters (about two inches) of rainfall. And even that is not significant.

Also mentioned last week, most of these areas have not seen rainfall in four to five months while temperatures have been consistently up around the 40-degree Celsius (104-degree Fahrenheit) mark during the same stretch. More than that first 50 millimeters is going to have to fall before producers plant their first-crop soybeans. If producers plant too early, they risk a quick shower bringing enough rain to germinate the seed, only to dry up quickly without any true soil moisture in the soil or subsequent rainfall.

Typically, some planting should have already occurred in the state of Mato Grosso. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) suggests some limited planting happens at the end of September, about 5% of the expected planted area by the start of October. Planting increases in the first week of October, then is rapid through the end of the month, with the last 20% or so being planted in early November. This usually puts soybeans on pace to be harvested in late January through the middle of February when the safrinha (second-season) corn would be immediately planted afterward. Producers try to accomplish this feat so corn can get through pollination before the wet season rains end in late April or early May, filling their grain with the built-up soil moisture from the wet season.

However, if soybeans are planted late, that causes corn to be also planted late and subjects the corn to the dry season earlier than normal. If the corn cannot get through pollination before the wet season rains shut down, that risks poor pollination and grain fill for the remainder of the season. According to IMEA on Sept. 27, just 0.53% of soybeans have been planted so far, the lowest in at least the last five years.

The 2020-2021 season had significant delays to planting as wet season rains did not really begin until Oct. 10. The soybean crop ended up just fine despite the dry start. The wet season rains eventually came and were heavy during pod filling, producing good yields. But the safrinha corn crop that was planted late in February and into March suffered under an early end to the wet season in mid-April 2021. That year happened to be a year in which sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean were colder than normal (La Nina), which is a scenario that is unfolding this year as well. If 2024-2025 follows a similar path, then we should draw the same concerns for the coming corn crop.

Every year is different though, even if it follows a similar pattern. And producers this year may remember back to four years ago about the struggles they had with their corn crop and decide to plant soybeans earlier than they would like anyway. We will need to see the proof. But the concerns are already there for this market year's safrinha crop.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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