South America Calling

From June 30 to July 7, the state of Sao Paulo in southern Brazil hovered at 25% of its safrinha (second-season) corn crop harvested. Showers have been persistent across southern Brazil during the past few weeks as fronts have stalled out across the region. For areas in central Brazil, harvest remains on pace as conditions are much drier. Next week may feature a pattern change that could allow drier conditions and harvesters to return to the corn fields in southern Brazil.

Last week, parts of Rio Grande Do Sul and Sao Paulo received up to 10-25 millimeters (0.4-1.0 inch) of rainfall. Since this past Monday, even more rainfall plagued these states as a stalled front lingered across southern Brazil. High pressure to the north and south of this front allowed it to stall out. At times, the front would make slight shifts to the north or south, but the bulk of the rain fell from Sao Paulo to Rio Grande Do Sul.

In a recent crop report released by Conab, Brazil's food supply and statistics agency, states in central Brazil like Mato Grosso Do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Minas Gerais have made steady progress with their safrinha corn harvest since June 30. Mato Grosso reported that 68.7% of its safrinha corn crop was harvested by June 30 with an increase to 82.5% by July 7. Mato Grosso Do Sul showed an 18% increase in its safrinha corn crop harvested from June 30 to July 7. Dry conditions and mild weather helped them make steady progress and next week's forecast looks favorable for the progress to continue.

After periodic showers this weekend, next week's forecast shows a more favorable outlook for producers to get back out in the fields in southern Brazil as well. Both the European and American GFS models show rain showers lingering into Monday, but any showers on Monday will be light. By Tuesday, high pressure from the southern Atlantic Ocean will extend into the region with mostly dry conditions possible through at least next Friday.

The forecast gets more uncertain by next weekend. The European model shows an area of high pressure from Argentina shifting east but a part of a cold front could get cut off by the high pressure. Consequently, a new low-pressure system could form near Uruguay or southern Brazil and lead to scattered rain showers for mainly Rio Grande Do Sul or Uruguay. The American GFS depicts that the cold front will be more progressive and provide a swath of rain as far north as the state of Santa Catarina early next weekend. After the swath of rain moves through, high pressure from Argentina may return towards the second half of the weekend.

In addition to the rainfall, southern Brazil received a shot of cooler weather this week when the front shifted north. Some of the coolest air stayed across Rio Grande Do Sul, where low temperatures consistently approached minus 1 to 5 degrees Celsius (30 to 40 degrees Fahrenheit) in the mornings. Temperatures that are this cold often make it more difficult for wet soil to dry out.

Luckily, increasing temperatures will accompany the drier conditions next week and this should help soil dry out quicker. Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through this weekend and into next week. High temperatures will be around 15 to 30 C for Sao Paulo and Parana next week. By next Thursday, DTN is forecasting temperatures to approach 5 C above normal across southern Brazil.

Next week's forecast looks much more promising for producers in southern Brazil to make progress with the safrinha corn harvest. Central Brazil will likely continue to make steady progress and some states, like Mato Grosso, may come close to wrapping up with harvest. The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the USDA on July 12, estimated that Brazil would produce a total of 137 million metric tons of corn. This estimate remains unchanged from the June WASDE report. If southern Brazil can get larger breaks in rainfall, farmers will likely be able to make steady progress with the safrinha corn harvest as parts of central Brazil get closer to finishing.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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