South America has a variable outlook for the next seven to 10 days, ranging from hot and dry conditions causing stress in parts of Brazil, to chances for rain in Argentina being favorable for crops.
High pressure aloft is expected to maintain its grip on Parana, Brazil, while expanding across much of central Brazil (Mato Grosso). There are indications this ridge could persist for at least the next seven to 10 days.
With the expectations for dry conditions -- or just a few light showers with locally heavier amounts -- during the next seven to 10 days, we should see temperatures heat up into the middle 90s to low 100s Fahrenheit as soils dry out. This will put significant stress on pod-filling soybeans, the majority of which will be filling during January.
Hot and dry weather is also affecting northeast Brazil soybean areas (Bahia). Only in Rio Grande do Sul are conditions expected to remain favorable for developing soybeans with mostly adequate rainfall and no persistent heat. This pattern has the potential to be one of the more significant drought patterns for Brazil in a number of years.
Favorable weather is forecast for developing corn and soybeans in Argentina with frequent episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms and moderate temperatures. This pattern very much has an El Nino signature in Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. It is drier than you would expect to see in an El Nino pattern in central Brazil due to the strength and location of subtropical high pressure.
Wet weather in the Delta and Southeast U.S., extending at times into the southern and eastern Midwest, has led to saturated soils and episodes of flooding. With El Nino conditions continuing, we see little change in the pattern at this time.
We will have an update on the sea surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial Pacific for the first half of January on next week's blog.
Michael Palmerino can be reached at Michael.firstname.lastname@example.org
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