South America Calling

The planting window may be tight this season and futures prices indicate small-to-negative margins, but Brazilian second-crop corn area probably will only fall 6.2% in 2015, AgRural, a local farm consultancy, forecast.

Brazilian farmers will plant 19.0 million acres of corn after the current soybean crop is harvested, down from 20.3 million acres last year, it predicted.

A recent run-up in local prices has stimulated farmers to plant more second-crop corn than they originally planned, despite the elevated risks of insufficient rain in the center-west and frost in Parana due to delays caused by the late planting of the summer soybean crop.

However, the level of investment in fertilizer and seed technology will probably fall, AgRural said.

Second-crop area will decline 10.3% in Mato Grosso, the principle producing state, to 7.2 million acres. While a significant drop, it remains much smaller than the 30% talked about in October when dryness was delaying soybean planting. However, the decline could be greater if it rains heavily in February, delaying soybean harvesting and further limiting the corn-planting window.

The declines in area in Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana, the other main second corn states, will be much smaller than in Mato Grosso.

Goias will see second-crop corn area drop 2.4% to 2.4 million acres, Mato Grosso do Sul area will fall 4.0% to 3.6 million acres and Parana will experience a 4.5% decline to 3.6 million acres. In Parana, the prospect of a decline in Mato Grosso corn area has prompted many farmers in the west to drop plans to plant wheat.

Based on 15-year yield trends, center-south second crop corn production will fall 7.4% to 41.3 million metric tons, AgRural predicts.

(CZ)

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.