South America Calling

With the new soybean season just days away, Brazilian farmers have their eyes on the skies and the weather charts.

Unfortunately, neither promises the opportunity of a flying start.

The soybean planting window opens on Sept. 15 in many parts of Mato Grosso and western Parana, but land generally remains too dry to plant after the long arid winter months.

Light showers have fallen in these regions, but more consistent showers are only expected at the end of September in western Parana and mid-October in Mato Grosso, according to the local Somar Meteorologia weather service.

"Those wanting to plant very early in Mato Grosso will be taking a big risk," said Marco Antonio dos Santos, a Somar meteorologist.

Brazil's soybean season officially starts in October, but farmers in these regions like to plant as early as possible to allow ample time for a second crop of corn or cotton afterward.

But planting soybeans after the first September showers is a gamble. If more consistent rain doesn't come soon enough, then plants die after germination.

Those that plan to plant cotton after the soy -- a growing number this season -- may take the chance as the cotton, rather than the soy, will be their main crop. Those who plan to plant corn, however, may not be so bold.

"We have learnt that planting in dry ground in the expectation of future showers is not the percentage move," said Pedro Vigolo, who intends to plant soybeans followed by corn on his 2,000 acres in Sorriso, Mato Grosso.

The recent upward surge in soybean prices combined with a 13% devaluation of the Brazilian real over the last three months has filled Brazilian farmers with new enthusiasm to plant soybeans.

On Monday, Celeres, a local farm consultancy, pegged the 2013-14 soybean acreage at 72.1 million acres, and output at 85.5 million metric tons (mmt).

But a late move to soybeans could take area as high as 74 million acres, as long as farmers can get hold of the inputs and the weather allows for timely planting, says Anderson Galvao, Celeres' grain analyst.

The animated attitude to the next crop can be seen in the surge in forward sales of the 2013-14 crop over the last month.

Sales totaled 25% of the estimated crop as of Sept. 6, up eight percentage points from August and ahead of the five-year average of 19% for this time of year, according to Safras e Mercado, a local ag analysis group.

(AG)

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