South America Calling

Brazil's Soybean Crushers Association (ABIOVE) Wednesday trimmed its forecast for the 2012-13 soybean crop to 82.1 million metric tons (mmt) from 82.3 mmt last month.

The association represents the major soybean purchasers, and therefore its estimate is closely watched.

The industry figure is very close to the 81.8 mmt forecast by the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry last week but well below the 83.5 mmt predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

With the Brazilian soybean harvest approaching 85% complete, it should now be clearer how big the harvest actually is and trading firms are in a good position to assess that. However, big variations in private forecasts remain, between 81 and 84 mmt. Could the ABIOVE announcement lead to a convergence toward 82 mmt?

Certainly, Hamburg-based Oilseed Analysts Oil World think so, yesterday declaring that USDA will have to lower its number.

Brazil will crush 38.3 mmt of soybeans in 2013-14, up 20% on last year.

Processing of soybeans slipped to 1.86 mmt in February, the lowest level since 2006, reflecting tight inter-harvest stocks and the late start to this year's harvest due to rain in the center-west.

Soy complex exports are expected to reach $28.3 million in 2013, up 8% on the year before as greater volumes make up for lower prices.

(AG)

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