South America Calling

Information collected during the Rally da Safra crop tour around Brazil reaffirms ideas the soybean crop will be excellent this season, according to Agroconsult, the farm consultancy that organizes the event.

As a result, Agroconsult is sticking by its view that the 2012-13 crop will reach 84.2 million metric tons (mmt), which is at the top end of market expectations, Agroconsult Director Andre Pessoa told a meeting in the southern city of Passo Fundo late Wednesday.

But a series of minor drought problems mean there is a downward bias on the figure, Pessoa admitted.

"The crop will be close to 84 mmt, but there are some factors that could drag the number down a little," he told the audience of farmers.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, early-planted beans suffered from drought at the end of December and early January. Similarly, short-cycle soy in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul was hit by a dry spell during most of January. Finally, a long dry spell in Bahia, northern Goias and Minas Gerais between December and February severely hampered planting there and the situation is becoming 'critical', said Pessoa.

However, field reports do not confirm ideas that soybean yields were significantly affected by excessive rain in Mato Grosso, he added.

"The heavy rains (in January and February) did cause some problems with quality, but not yields. It's not a big problem," he said.

This view puts him at odds with the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry.

On Thursday, the ministry reduced its Brazilian soy view by 1.3 mmt to 82.1 mmt, based in part on the damage caused by the deluges in Mato Grosso and the rest of the center-west.

Brazil's soybean harvest is currently around 40% complete.

The Rally da Safra tours all the main grain regions between January and March.

I am participating in the tours this week, viewing crops in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana.

Alastair Stewart can be reached at alastair.stewart@telventdtn.com

(AG)

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