Sort & Cull

While hope "springs" eternal, 2013 is shaping up to be one of those truncated years when winter jumps to summer in one fell swoop.

A friend of mine who runs cows in northern Montana is fond of saying "spring came and went last weekend." Something tells me that those of us in the "banana belt" may be set to get the full sting of his remark.

There are times when cabin fever becomes so burning that hallucinations of spring fever cannot be controlled. Such an outbreak seemed to happen this week when, despite the persistence of below-normal temperatures across most of the country, red meat buyers chased wholesale prices higher with all the single-mindedness of a Long Horn bull at turn-out.

From Thursday to Thursday, the choice beef loin and rib primals surged no less than $22.86 and $13.19, respectively. At the same time, the pork loin primal rallied by nearly $3. The sudden scramble for grillable middle meats made demand for the latest smartphone look like a flop.

The long-awaited spending spree hardly seemed to be inspired by spot weather conditions. Just ask the hardy meat lovers of Zumbrota, Minn., how easy it was to deliver May baskets in the wake of 13 inches of snowfall.

But while the 6-10 day forecast looked a bit more promising in terms of a seasonable warming trend for most of the country, my guess is that retailers were betting more on the calendar than the dubious batting average of the National Weather Service.

For the love of charcoal, we're already less than a month away from Memorial Day, the crown jewel of outdoor grilling. Talk about now or never.

Given the way discounted live cattle futures imploded with triple-digit losses Friday, there were more than a handful of specs and commercial willing to nervously talk about "never" before leaving for the weekend. Well, maybe not exactly "never," but a demand-window narrow enough to go by the same name.

Of course, the trouble with betting on the calendar alone is that it cuts both ways. If April typically reminds meat demand managers to prepare for the major holidays of late spring and early summer, May usually prompts memories of significant box weakness immediately before and after Memorial Day.

In short, after a speed course in drunken-sailor-spending, meat buyers may already be anxiously waiting for the other shoe to drop in the wholesale market

I hope I'm guilty of overanalyzing the situation. A quick board recovery early next week and sustained strength in the box trade would have me dead to rights. And it's worth noting that the choice cut-out closed the week at another all-time high ($201.68).

Maybe the season's weird weather and market time had just made me as antsy as a gangster in church. Judging by the late-week rush for the door at the CME, I'm not alone.

For more John Harrington comments, visit http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…

(AG)

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