Market Matters Blog

Hard Red Spring, a specialty wheat grown primarily in the Northern Plains of the United States, stands out as the "aristocrat of wheat" when it comes to baking bread. The 2024 North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC) Regional Quality Report noted the 2024 HRS wheat crop graded No. 1 Northern Spring, similar to last year and the five-year average.

Jim Peterson, policy and marketing director, North Dakota Wheat Commission, told DTN based on their harvest survey this is a general assessment. "Across Montana and some parts of North Dakota, we had lighter test weights, but high vitreous kernel counts, sound kernels and high protein. Across central and eastern areas of the region we had average to below average protein, very good test weights with pockets of above average damage and some low falling numbers. The highest damage levels and highest DON (vomitoxin) levels were in the southeast corner of the four-state region (ND/MN/SD/MT), but DON levels were higher than recent years in much of the region, although not really a spec challenge in most areas, and really nonexistent in the west."

"Fortunately, the initial perception of significant quality loss in areas due to the untimely harvest rains in August did not meet reality when looking at the overall crop, although for some individual producers it was significant. The lowest protein levels were in the eastern half of the region, ranging from 13.3% to 13.7% for individual crop reporting areas, but we certainly saw a higher than typical percent of individual samples that fell just below to well below 13%. Proteins across southwest North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and into Montana were in the 14% to 15% range."

Tim Dufault, Crookston, Minnesota, said 2024 will go down as a very wet spring and summer followed by a warm and dry fall.

"With above average rainfall and mild temperatures for the growing season, the spring wheat crop looked great in northwest Minnesota. Early harvested fields had yields well above average and 80 to 90 bushel per acre (bpa) yields were common. Test weights were good, but with good yields, protein levels were low. I only had one sample at 14%. For my area, 11.5% to 13.5% was the range of most of the crop. There were some areas of the state where fusarium head blight, or scab, showed up in high enough levels to get discounted."

"In mid-August northwest Minnesota, a widespread rain event dropped around an inch on the wheat that wasn't harvested. This was followed with three hot and humid days. After this, a lot of the crop had severe sprouting and low falling numbers score. It seemed like certain varieties of wheat were hit harder than others. Growers with fields of low FN (falling numbers) had to put that wheat in the bin. Elevators did not want to deal with it at harvest. Hopefully, growers will be able to market this wheat later in the marketing year."

Matthew Krueger, East Grand Forks, Minnesota, said, "Yields were really good; quality started out well but after a beautiful rain, which lasted almost two days (nice and slow), then we all quickly realized there was vomitoxin, FN issues and sprout as well. Each elevator seemed to handle it differently, but it quickly became apparent most wheat after it got rained on became food grade or barely above it. After that rain though, the weather held well, and wheat harvest went smoothly. Yields held above average for the most part. Some later-seeded wheat for us definitely was yielding less than the earlier planted, but again, still strong yields. We also heard guys that skipped fungicides really saw an effect on quality and yields too."

According to some farmers in areas where there was vomitoxin and low FN present, elevator discounts were higher than normal, with one farmer telling me there were "discounts on top of discounts."

Peter Bakkum, Mayville, North Dakota, said his spring wheat harvest started good around Aug. 10. "We got about 2/3 completed with harvest before the mid-August rainy spell hit. I think we got around 2 inches of rain. The wheat after that went from around 62 lbs to 59 lbs and bleached. There were issues with FN in the area after that rain. We had below normal protein, so there were high discounts. Thankfully we had high yields to help make up for the discounts."

Darrin Schmidt, eastern North Dakota, said his wheat harvest went well. "We had a few weather breaks that affected quality on a few of our fields, but the majority got off in a timely manner where falling numbers and test weight didn't get hit. We never had any vomitoxin issues, but we heard of some issues with guys that had high vom. Most of our FN was above 300 easily and test weight around 60+lbs, but we had a few fields where FN was around 250 and test weight was 58 or 57 lbs. Protein was mostly around 13% to 14% and was pretty consistent actually, but had two fields that were the variety Trigger that avg 12.5% pro. Yield was good for the majority of fields with above APH and a few that were below APH or at it." (APH=Actual Production History.)

"Wheat harvest in our area had 70-85 bpa yields, similar to last year. Overall quality was good with protein a little lower, around 13.2% and FNs of 350-400. A few acres midway through harvest were in the 200 FN range," said Cory Tryan, grain manager at Alton Grain Terminal LLC.

"We started out by 'ringing the bell' of winter wheat that was running 100 bpa, but it was only 8% to 9% protein -- losing money with 100 bpa wheat!" said Keith Brandt, general manager of Plains Grain and Agronomy LLC, Enderlin, North Dakota. "The first spring wheat started out very well. Good yields, good quality, 13% protein. We had rain on Aug. 13 and 14 and the quality really went south, especially the FN. Some variety related, but it still ruined a good crop. The later harvest, after Aug. 26, produced improved quality, but yields dropped off and the protein came back to a 14% average. Most of the poor-quality wheat came to town, cashed out and turned into insurance. Today, between the quality issues and price, I see wheat acres down 5-10% for 2025. That all changes with a spring rally and spring soil conditions. We are very dry right now. Most of this area has had less than a half inch of rain since mid-August."

Riley Schriefer, western North Dakota, said, "Spring wheat in western Mercer County, North Dakota, was above average yields, below average quality. The spring after planting had the most timely rains that I've seen. Had absolutely beautiful harvest weather, due to the sprinkler shutting off after the Fourth of July. It hasn't turned on since, so we will be praying for late fall rain or early spring rains. Droughts of 2021 and 2017 are still fresh in my mind and the severe lack of fall moisture is very concerning."

"We got the wheat planted in April this year and almost a month earlier than the last couple of years," said Kerry Baldwin, Hope, North Dakota. "With over 10 inches of rain in May and June, the herbicides and fungicides were applied with the airplane. Our yields were some of the best we've had with some of the wheat yielding in the mid-80s. Protein was average, anywhere from 12.5% to 14.5%. We were fortunate to get it all harvested before it started raining in August."

Kyle Wasson, Whitewater, Montana, said, "We seeded both Dagmar and Vida spring wheat. Both yields were good this year, while Dagmar had higher protein with about the same average. We ranged from 15 bpa on one field that was hailed on for spring wheat, to 44 bpa spring wheat. All re-crop acres."

Peterson, mentioned first in this article, said, "I would assess the hard red spring crop as average to good quality in areas that saw record to near record yields, meaning it falls short on some typical factors that are characteristic of U.S. HRS, but when one compares this against the type of yields that were produced and the lack of any real stress on the crop, quality is still respectable and competitive for demand in a number of demand segments. In areas where yields were compromised and growing conditions were more stressful, or areas with less disease pressure or harvest rains, quality is good to excellent and will compete very well for demand at the high end of the spectrum."

"The market is reacting to the below-average protein levels in much of this year's crop, and there are also market penalties in pockets due to DON or FN, but I think on an overall perspective those are not as broad or deep as some past years. There are certainly greater discounts for protein than we have seen in a number of years, but I know there are also producers in the western part of the region that have already seen some pretty good 'basis bumps' for 15-plus protein, helping offset some of the yield hit they took, relative to producers in the phenomenal yielding areas."

NDWC report added the 2024 crop is nearly 12% larger in production compared to the five-year average. A record regional yield made up for the marginal decline in spring wheat acreage, producing a 503-million-bushel crop. This year's production is 8% higher than last year.

DURUM 2024 QUALITY REPORT

Durum in Latin means 'hard', making it the hardest of all the classes of wheat. Its density, combined with its high protein content and gluten strength, make durum the wheat of choice for producing premium pasta and couscous products. Durum kernels are amber colored and larger than those of other wheat classes and it not only looks like pasta, but in my opinion, it actually tastes like it if you were to chew on a kernel.

NDWC notes durum production is geographically concentrated to the Northern Plains because it demands a special agronomic environment. In most years, the states of North Dakota and Montana produce 90% of the U.S. durum crop.

Peterson said durum this year was really a tale of two crops. "It is probably one of the biggest splits between Montana and North Dakota average yields that I have seen. From an overall quality level, the crop was lighter than average for test weight, higher in S&B (shrunken and broken) and damage than recent years, but produced very high protein, with sound kernels and high falling numbers, and higher vitreous kernels compared to recent years. Based on our harvest survey, test weights were lightest in Montana, with a broad enough number of low-test weight samples to take the average Montana grade to a No. 2 (durum is at 60 lbs for No. 1, whereas hard red spring wheat is 58 lbs), but vitreous kernel levels were very good. North Dakota averaged a No. 1 grade with higher test weights, and vitreous kernels were also better than a year ago. Protein differences between the two states was quite extreme, ranging from an average of 16.5% in Montana to 13.5% in North Dakota, with a crop average of 14.3%, well above the typical contract spec of 13%. Overall, a really good quality crop that should compete well for demand."

Northern durum production was 23% higher than last year at 71 million bushels (mb) (1.9 million metric tons). Planted area was 35% higher than last year and average yields reached record levels in North Dakota, but were reduced in Montana due to hot, dry conditions.

Kim Saueressig, McClusky, North Dakota, said, "Durum was fantastic around here with good yields and good quality. Been hauling the last few weeks to the pasta plant. Test weight has been 62 to 63 lbs, low 80s to low 90s on hard counts and the only low number would be our protein. Upper 12s to low 13s. The only thing that I noticed was the yellow bellies in the sample, keeping our hard amber count down in some samples; still in the 80s but it affects it. Usually happens on high yielding years and thinking the plants just ran out of nitrogen."

Saueressig added, "Finished up harvest about a week and a half ago. Yields were fantastic across all crops other than drown out areas, which some fields got pretty excessive from the wet spring and early summer. Pretty dry around here now just like the rest of the state. Trying to get some fall work done and spraying. Finished zone soil testing anxious to see the results. No fertilizer this fall, gonna hold off until next spring. Ground is just too hard and dry on top. Blessed for this year and getting ready for 2025."

NDWC report added production of this year's durum crop is estimated at 80 million bushels, an increase of over 35% from the previous year due to a sizeable increase in planted acreage and higher yields in eastern production regions.

Link to the complete and extensive North Dakota Wheat Commission 2024 Crop Quality Spring Wheat and Durum Reports with explanations of the characteristics of spring wheat and durum and also the milling characteristics of both crops for flour mills and pasta makers: https://ndwheat.com/…

Mary Kennedy can be reached at Mary.Kennedy@dtn.com

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